Week 4 DraftKings Picks, Bargains, and Lineup Strategy

Week 4 DraftKings Picks, Bargains, and Lineup Strategy

Week 4 is here, which means we have plenty of data to break down with three games in the books for the majority of NFL teams. There should still be a fair amount of guys still buying into preseason biases that haven’t come to fruition. This combination makes week 4 one of the more favorable cash game weeks for guys that are willing to put in the work watching tape and breaking down the data.

Top QB Plays for DraftKings Week 3 Contests

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
Trevor SiemianOakland$5,2003.53
Deshaun WatsonTennessee$5,1003.39

We don’t see anything that really jumps out from the top QB’s in this slate, and will look to these two bargain plays to reach value at the position and allow us to load up elsewhere.

Clearly Trevor Siemian has one of the better matchups in the slate. The Raiders secondary is a complete wreck, and the defensive line is getting virtually no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It’s also obvious that DraftKings, or at least their pricing algorithm, still doesn’t quite buy the Trevor Siemian hype as his current price is just slightly under 4x value for his current FPPG average.

Deshaun Watson has not been anywhere near as good as most casual fans would have you believe. He has made a few splash plays, but for the most part has been inconsistent and mistake-prone, and remains one of PFF’s bottom 3 QB’s for 2017. All that being said, it’s hard not to like him given this matchup. He is currently giving you just under 7 FPPG as a runner, and should be able to throw the ball against a Titans defense that is allowing 275 passing YPG with a 7/2 TD/INT ratio.

Top RB Plays for DraftKings Week 3 Contests

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
LeSean McCoyAtlanta$8,4003.11
Ezekiel ElliottLA Rams$8,2003.23
Leonard FournetteNY Jets$5,0003.19
Bilal PowellJacksonville$4,6003.96

Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy come in at 2 and 3 in our week 4 RB rankings, just behind Kareem Hunt who is not in the Sunday slate. Shady has the third best matchup in the slate, and is a great bounce-back spot coming off from a disappointing performance against the Broncos. His usage remains phenomenal at 23 opportunities per game, including 18 receptions on 20 targets through the first three weeks.

It’s rare to say that a guy coming off from a 18+ point game is due, but that is exactly the case for Zeke heading into week 4. He has yet to get it going this season, and you can bet that the Cowboys are aware of that fact, and will look to get him well over the 100 yard mark against the Rams this week. The Rams come into Dallas in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards per carry, yards per game, and are dead last in rushing touchdowns allowed.

The Jags have to feel great about the fact that they are 2-1, with a phenomenal defense, and Leonard Fournette looking as advertised despite not having to overwork their rookie. The margin of victory in Jags games has been over 20 all three weeks, and as a result we have only really seen one full game out of Fournette and that was a 24 point performance against the Texans. This is by far his best matchup of the season, and even if he only plays the first quarter I would expect to see 100 yards and 2 touchdowns out of him.

On the other side of the ball, if the Jets have watched Jags opponents try to move the ball at all this season they should see there is really only one option: run, run, run. The Jags secondary is pushing the Broncos as the tops in the NFL, and opponents have gotten nothing going through the air this season. On the flip side, they have allowed the 5th most rushing yards and 8th most yards per attempt. With Forte out, Bilal Powell will be a workhorse for the Jets, a role he has excelled in in the past.

Top WR Plays for DraftKings Week 3 Contests

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
DeAndre HopkinsTennessee$6,4003.20
Brandin CooksCarolina$7,6003.09
Demaryius ThomasOakland$6,3003.04
Marqise LeeNY Jets$4,5003.53

DeAndre Hopkins was only targeted 8 times against the Patriots, but still leads the league in targets with 37 in three games. He faced two top five pass defenses in weeks one and two, and the Pats who tried to take him away in week three. Finally he gets a matchup that we know he is capable of going nuts in… roster this man.

The Patriots are clearly trying to sandbag just how effective they know Brandin Cooks can be in this offense, but after week 3 the gig has to be up. One of my favorite stats to look at each season is receiving yards per target. At the top of that list this season you will find several guys with just a few receptions but tucked in their at number 4 overall, 14.22 yards per target, is Brandin Cooks. The Pats are aware of this fact and have proven that they will hammer whatever works, and clearly Brandin Cooks is what works.

The choice between DeMaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders is clearly a bit of a toss up. Sanders has an edge in production this season, but you still get the feeling that Thomas has the higher ceiling of the two. He trails Sanders by only 4 targets, but averages 4 more yards per target (9.44 vs 5.62). I will have a share of both, likely a lineup with both, but will have slightly more Thomas lineups than Sanders this week.

Marqise Lee is in our picks every single week. The Jets defense showed signs of life against the Dolphins last week, but we aren’t buying it. This is still a defense that comes into this matchup giving up an average of over 39 DraftKings PPG to opposing receivers. Given that fact and what his target volume has looked like since Robinson went down, Lee is in line for a huge breakout in week 4.

Top TE Plays for DraftKings Week 3 Contests

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
Ryan GriffinHouston$3,5003.60
Tyler KroftCleveland$2,6004.03

Once again, we are going value at QB and tight end… this is starting to feel like one of our season long draft articles. Wait to draft quarterbacks and tight ends!!! Once again, 11 of the top 14 tight ends this season are new names. Speaking of new names, Tyler Kroft makes his first appearance in the TDA article. If he doesn’t have a massive week 4 performance, he’s banned for life. The Browns remain one of if not the most favorable TE matchup and Kroft was on the field for 98% of Cinci’s week 3 snaps.

Ryan Griffin was a guy we were all over last week, and we will have him in several of our lineups this week. The Texans deperately need someone they can rely on, other than Hopkins, on third downs and in the short passing game. He and Fiedorowicz combined to catch 104 of 164 targets with 6 touchdowns last season, and Griffin should absorb almost all of that work with Fiedorowicz on the IR.

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