West Virginia at Texas Tech – Under 76
I think Vegas had to put this line up around 76 knowing the over was going to get hammered by the public, but we like the under here. This game has gone under 76 in three of the last four meetings, and was well under in both games at Jones AT&T. I wrote in my week 5 DFS college football article that these two coaches are extremely familiar with one another, Holgorsen coached Kingsbury and they coached and lived together in Houston. Both of these defenses are improved from year’s past, and the HC’s familiarity with the system should have each group well prepared.
Additionally, this is arguably the best Red Raiders running game we have ever seen. They are averaging just under 200 rushing YPG and have 16 rushing touchdowns through the first four weeks. While Bowman is completing over 72% of his passes, his YPA is just 8.7, a relatively low number considering the schedule, completion percentage, and system.Translation: Texas Tech could sustain some long drives at home, while systematically taking away the big play from West Virginia, which would make 76 all but impossible.
Ohio State (-3) at Penn State
The public was all over Ohio State earlier in the week, but Westgate just moved this line from -3.5 to -3, which leads us to believe some decent money went the other way in the past 24 hours. I think Vegas is in trouble here and if you can get the Buckeyes at -3.5 or better you should jump on it. I get Penn State has been better than the Buckeyes, particularly at home, in recent years, but all you have to do is put on the film from these two teams to see one is clearly superior.
Penn State nearly lost to App State in their opener, blew out two really bad teams in Pitt and Kent State, then let Illinois move the ball all over them. This Penn State defense has not looked good, and they face an Ohio State offense that has an entirely different look with Dwayne Haskins. JT Barrett was a tremendous leader, great athlete, ran like a fullback, but he couldn’t throw the football and maximize the plethora of 5 star athletes Ohio State has had on the outside. Haskins has unbelievable arm talent, and Kevin Wilson has done a phenomenal job coaching him. He trusts what he sees, trusts his talent, and makes the right throw on time.
On the other side of the ball, McSorley is yet to throw for over 229 yards this season. McSorley has played his best football in big games throughout his career, but that was with a different play caller, a better set of receivers, and a guy named Barkley.
Kansas City at Denver (+4.5)
I mentioned this game last week, then again earlier this week in our DFS articles, as a spot that Mahomes will regress towards the mean slightly. We all love watching the kid, the weapons he has are unreal, Kelce is going to go off in this matchup, but nobody will ever throw for 5,000 yards and 70 touchdowns in this league.
The public loves Mahomes, and they hammered the Chiefs early and often this week, but the line moved the opposite way. We all know the percentages of a Reverse Line Move and how this plays out.
Andy Reid started last season the same exact way, they were putting up a ton of points, Alex Smith was the number one QB in fantasy, Hunt was the number one RB and Reid could do no wrong. By mid-season he gave up play calling duties, Hunt was a ghost and Alex Smith was Alex Smith again.
Mahomes will be under pressure on Monday night, the Broncos adjusted sack rate is just under 10% at home. If Chris Harris and Bradley Roby can contain Hill and Watkins off the line, the defensive line will do the rest.
Cleveland at Oakland (-2.5)
This is our lock of the week. This line makes no sense, the only explanation for it is a complete overreaction to the Mayfield performance against a bad Jets team that didn’t prepare for him. The Raiders have played a brutal schedule, opening with the Rams and then having to go to Denver and Miami. Getting the Browns at home, in what is really a must-win spot, is a get right game for Jon Gruden and company.
The Browns defense started the season hot, holding the Steelers and Saints to a combined 42 points, but have loads of injuries and could be without Burgess, Kirksey, Ogbah, and Randall this week. And then there is the rookie quarterback making his first career start. For those wondering how number one picks fair in their first career start on the road, they are 0-8 straight up, 0-8 ATS, and lose by an average margin of 18 PPG.
The Raiders were outclassed by the best team in football in week one. They lost a game where their QB was perfect but defense was gassed in week 2. Then lost to undefeated Dolphins team thanks in part to trick plays in week three. Eventually that fortune turns around and getting a bad Cleveland team, that isn’t healthy and is traveling across country is the perfect pot for that to happen.