Wednesday Night Plays for 12/9/15 FanDuel Contests
We are back! After out one week hiatus, we are hitting the ground running today with NBA picks for tonight, NFL picks will be out this afternoon, and we may even sneak some CBB picks in even though tonight’s slate isn’t great.
Looking at the NBA schedule for tonight, you have to be excited about a mid-week 10 game slate on FanDuel, and this one is full of intriguing matchups. As always, injury creates value in DFS, so let’s start by looking at who we know is likely out for tonight:
I doubt Aaron Gordon and David Lee play, and it looks like Marcin Gortat, Luol Deng, and Kawhi Leonard will all play tonight. We will be checking back later this afternoon on Marc Gasol and Trevor Ariza. No major or new injuries here, which makes it a little more difficult to find value. As always, know your beat writers and keep an eye on Twitter as we get closer to tip-off.
Point Guard Targets
FanDuel Salary – $7,100
Rubio had a 50+ FanDuel point performance against the Lakers earlier this season and looks primed to go on a similar tear right now. The Lakers are giving up 49 PPG to opposing point guards on the season, most in the NBA, but are giving up 54 PPG to the position over the last three weeks. We expect a big 15/15 double-double out of Ricky tonight.
FanDuel Salary – $6,800
Payton’s lack of a half court offensive skill set and high motor make him a matchup dependent point guard play. He will stuff the stat sheet in an uptempo game, but disappear in slower paced matchups. Obviously Phoenix is about as solid of a matchup as you could hope for… they are the fastest team in the NBA (102.2 possessions per game) and have a defensive efficiency rating of over 103. The result is opponents averaging 105 PPG on 52% shooting against the Suns, Payton should have a 40+ point game here.
Shooting Guard Targets
FanDuel Salary – $10,800
We are paying up for Harden in what should be one of the highest scoring games we have seen this season. Both the Rockets and Wizards play fast and don’t play much defense. Both teams are in the top 10 in the league in pace, and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. Not only does Harden have one of the highest ceilings in the league, but he’s one of the most consistent fantasy performers. Last night’s 26 point performance against Brooklyn was his first sub-43.9 point game in nearly 3 weeks.
FanDuel Salary – $5,500
We wanted to target the SG matchup, as the Knicks have given up a league high 41.5 PPG to the position over the past three week, and Burks is the clear play. He is playing fewer minutes than Rodney Hood, but his usage 25% higher, he has a much higher ceiling, and has averaged over 5x value over his last 5 games.
Small Forward Targets
FanDuel Salary – $7,500
If you have followed our NBA picks over the past three years, you know I love to plug Batum into my lineups. He’s consistent, gets 40 minutes per game, and contributes in literally every statistical category. The Heat’s biggest weakness is in defending the small forward position, and we are betting Luol has a little rust to knock off before he’s all the way back.
FanDuel Salary – $5,600
This feels like a Nikola Mirotic night… how is that for analysis. I know the numbers disagree, but I just don’t see how Jared Sullinger can deal with Mirotic’s combination of size and skill.
Power Forward Targets
FanDuel Salary – $4,400
Markieff is done in Phoenix… and rightfully so, he’s an idiot:
Leuer has been extremely efficient over the past two weeks averaging 12, 6, 2, 1, 1 over 28 mpg, nearly 1 fantasy point per minute. With that sort of efficiency, and a $4,400 he just needs minutes in a favorable matchup to push 8x value. He should get both against Orlando tonight.
FanDuel Salary – $4,000
With Big Al set to miss at least another week, Zeller is coming on as he has for stretches when Jefferson has gone down in the past. He looked great in isolation sets against Drummond on Monday and was able to get and keep him in foul trouble for the majority of the game. Miami defends the frontcourt as well as anyone, but Zeller should be able to employ a similar strategy to Whiteside as he did on Drummond and at $4,000 there is too much value here to pass on.
FanDuel Salary – $6,200
The Rockets give up more fantasy points than any team in the NBA, and face the uptempo Wiz tonight, so this is a matchup we are targeting at multiple positions, but Gortat is clearly the frontcourt player to start. Howard is expected to play limited minutes in the second night of a back-to-back, and a slew of injuries which may force Gortat into extended minutes and usage.