With three games on Thursday and no teams on bye this is a 12 game Sunday slate on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Before we jump into the picks for this slate, here is a look at the top Vegas totals for the week. In addition to the Eagles and Patriots who Vegas have projected at the 30 point mark, we think there is a legitimate chance that the Falcons, Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, Titans, and Colts all reach 30 points this week.
Plenty of fantasy points to be had in all of these games, so expect cash lines to be way up in week 12.
Price: FanDuel – $8,600 | DraftKings – $7,000
Russell Wilson is clearly the number one QB for this slate, and the most likely of the top five QB’s to go for 30+ this week. He has run for 75+ yards in two of his last three, and has 11 touchdowns in the last four weeks. The 49ers are a bottom five pass defense and Baldwin is coming on late, as he always does.
Price: FanDuel – $7,600 | DraftKings – $6,700
Goff and the Rams pass defense weren’t on our radar until the new on the injuries to the Saints secondary popped up. They will be without both outside corners, which has really been the strength of this defense. With Robert Woods hurt, Cooper Kupp should be busy and we expect Watkins to break a couple of big plays.
Price: FanDuel – $6,900 | DraftKings – $5,400
Brissett has quietly become a viable fantasy QB down the stretch, and this is the best matchup he has had in months. Neither of these offenses has been able to consistently run the ball, and both defenses are complete dumpster fires in the secondaries, so we expect the total here to be north of 55.
Price: FanDuel – $6,200 | DraftKings – $4,400
Perhaps the highest risk/reward in this slate, Paxton Lynch is certainly in play this week.
He faces the softest pass defense in the NFL, and I think there is a chance he leads all QB’s in rushing this week as well. They need to rely on his athleticism to make plays on third down, so look for Bill Musgrave to get Lynch outside of the pocket early and often.
Price: FanDuel – $7,700 | DraftKings – $8,000
It feels like this is the fourth time we have said this, but if Kareem Hunt doesn’t get 20 opportunities this week, Andy Reid is dead to us. The Bills give up an NFL-high .89 points per opportunity and that’s to mortal running backs… Kareem Hunt is no mortal, he has almost double the number of broken tackles than the next closes player in the league.
Price: FanDuel – $8,100 | DraftKings – $7,900
This is another game we expect to be high scoring and uptempo, thanks to the injuries in the Saints secondary. That is a game flow that has favored Kamara this season, who has flashed his enormous ceiling (4 games of nearly 2 PPO in his last 7). I think his floor should be 3x this week, with one of the highest ceilings in the slate.
Price: FanDuel – $6,200 | DraftKings – $6,500
Coleman should have a much better week 12 than he did in his start against the Seahawks. The Bucs give up the second most big plays per carry in the NFL, and are bottom 5 in DVOA vs RB’s in the passing game. While Ward is arguably the best 3rd string back in the NFL, somewhat limiting Coleman’s workload, we expect him to hit at least 3x value in this favorable home matchup.
Price: FanDuel – $6,500 | DraftKings – $5,200
Speaking of ultra-friendly matchups for pass catching backs… The Colts are dead last in DVOA vs RB’s in the passing game, and this is one of the few matchups Murray has been able to exploit this fantasy season with 19 points on just 16 touches in week 6.
Price: FanDuel – $5,500 | DraftKings – $3,700
It’s nearly impossible to predict how Pete Carroll is going use his backs, but it certainly appears that McKissic has earned a higher workload this week. If he is able to earn the lion’s share of snaps at RB,
or even just the passing down work, McKissic should go off. The 49ers give up the second most fantasy points per target to opposing running backs.
Price: FanDuel – $7,800 | DraftKings – $7,700
Julio Jones has alway shredded the Bucs at home, and this is arguably the worst Bucs secondary he has ever faced. They allow the third most passing yards in the league, and the front seven has been nonexistent all season. Ryan/Coleman/Jones/Sanu should all be on everyone’s radar this week.
Price: FanDuel – $7,900 | DraftKings – $7,000
We name dropped Baldwin in our breakdown for Russell Wilson, so it should be no surprise to see him pop up. He tends to come on every November, and once again, he’s heating up. Baldwin has three touchdowns in his last five games, and this matchup with K’Waun Williams is arguably the most favorable he’s had this season.
Price: FanDuel – $7,500 | DraftKings – $6,700
Jacoby Brissett and the Colts’ passing attack has really come on as of late, and this week they get a Titans secondary that has allowed the second most passing touchdowns on the season. T.Y. Hilton is always on our radar home, and we expect him to get the best of Adoree’ Jackson at least once this week.
Price: FanDuel – $6,800 | DraftKings – $5,700
Thomas has scored in three straight games, a stretch that has seen him average over 3x his current DraftKings salary. While there should be concerns about a young Lynch making his first start under center,
can the QB play actually get worse than what we have seen over the first 11 weeks of the season?
Price: FanDuel – $5,400 | DraftKings – $5,000
Kupp will clearly be the biggest beneficiary from the Robert Woods injury in terms of volume. I think Watkins will see the biggest jump in production, and Austin could see some added snaps work in the screen game, but Kupp will be the unquestioned move the chains target for Goff this week.
Price: FanDuel – $5,900 | DraftKings – $4,900
Even before the injuries, this was a Saints secondary prone to giving up big plays (7th most pass plays over 20 yards on the season). Take away their top two corners in a matchup with a red hot QB and playcaller, and I think you can expect to see them give up as many as 5 big plays in the passing game this week. Clearly that is a recipe for success for the NFL’s most efficient big play receiver in history.
Price: FanDuel – $5,900 | DraftKings – $5,000
We mentioned Walker in our week 12 stacks article as being a guy that you should be targeting this week. The Colts give up a ton of production to slot receivers, tight ends, and backs. Walker still remains the number one option in the Titans passing game and the injury to Rishard Matthews only improves he and Corey Davis’ week 12 ceilings, as the Titans are going to score a bunch this week.
Price: FanDuel – $5,700 | DraftKings – $3,900
This is Kroft’s first appearance in our picks since the last time he faced off with the Browns. This is just a matchup we love, as the Bengals gameplan will go TE heavy when they can. McCourty did a phenomenal job on A.J. Green in the last matchup, and the Browns linebackers and safeties have been shredded by opposing tight ends all season.