Week 7 is here and with four teams on bye (Packers, Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers) we have a season low 10 games in the main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If you look at the defenses we have liked to pick on this season, many of them are either playing a prime time game or on bye, so scoring is likely going to be down in week 7.
Here is a look at the top implied totals for the main 10 game DFS slate, which are noticeably down from what he have come to expect over the first two months of the season.
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DraftKings Price – $6,000 | FanDuel Price – $7,600
Carson Wentz is due for a price adjustment on both sites… He is yet to go too far below 3x value for his current salary since his first game back from injury. Clearly he has a loaded group of weapons around him in Jeffery, Agholor, Ertz, Mathews, and Goedert and a HC/playcaller that knows how to take advantage of matchups. This Carolina defense and secondary are all hype… They are PFF’s 29th ranked secondary, and their shutdown corner James Bradberry received a 42.4 player grade last season. While they are giving up under 260 passing YPG, 3 of their 5 games came against Eli, Alex Smith, and Dak Prescott. They gave up 350 yards to Andy Dalton and 31 fantasy points to Matt Ryan.
DraftKings Price – $5,400 | FanDuel Price – $7,500
We predicted this would be a career year for Flacco heading into this season, and it is shaping up to be one. The schedule hasn’t been overly forgiving and he comes into week 7 averaging 300 YPG with a 9/4 TD/INT ratio. The Ravens actually lead the NFL in pace over the past two seasons, and as a result Flacco is averaging 44 attempts per game this year. The Saints secondary is an absolute dumpster fire right now. If not for the Bucs, they would rank dead last in just about every passing statistic. Flacco is a lock for 4x on DraftKings and 3x on FanDuel.
DraftKings Price – $9,800 | FanDuel Price – $10,200
The running back position is horrible this week… This happens a few times per season, and when it does we simply pay up for a stud like Gurley rather than just throw a dart at a cheaper option. Even at $9,800 Gurley is averaging over 3x on DraftKings this season. Clearly there is no issue with the matchup… Gurley has put up big numbers against better defenses this season, and you would expect the Rams to jump on top of the 49ers early and for the game flow to result in another 20+ carry week for last season’s offensive player of the year.
DraftKings Price – $4,900 | FanDuel Price – $6,300
It appears that the only person that doesn’t love the Drake is his head coach. Drake led the NFL in rushing over the second half of last season, but apparently has taken a step backward this offseason despite the numbers saying otherwise. At any rate, he is still getting over 60% of the snaps for Miami, which should translate to a ton of production against a Lions defense that comes in allowing 31.3 fantasy PPG to opposing running backs. In addition to giving up the third most rushing YPG, Detroit ranks 27th in DVOA vs RB’s in the passing game. Drake should break some big plays in what could be an up tempo home game for the Dolphins.
Kenyan Drake is just so freaking good. That cut at speed at the second level. Whoo
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 10, 2018
Week 7 Wide Receiver Targets
DraftKings Price – $5,700 | FanDuel Price – $6,500
When healthy in Arizona, Brown was Carson Palmer’s number one receiver because he is impossible to handle in man coverage. He has elite speed and great route running skills. His WR/CB matchups haven’t been great this season, but he is still averaging over 14 DraftKings PPG. This week he has PFF’s 9th best WR/CB matchup and I don’t see any way the Saints keep him under 100 yards given the matchup, volume (8 targets/game) and the way Flacco is playing right now.
DraftKings Price – $7,200 | FanDuel Price – $7,600
Clearly Adam Thielen will be the highest owend receiver over $7,000 this week, but we will play the contrarian role and bet on Diggs to get back on track in this favorable matchup. He struggled against Patrick Peterson as well as the Bills who have shut down every #1 WR they have faced, but is averaging 29 DraftKings PPG in his last 3 excluding those two matchups. The Jets secondary has been decimated by injury over the past few weeks, and gave up 377 yards to Case Keenum two weeks ago and 301 yards and 4 touchdowns to Andrew Luck last week. Diggs should be able to shred this secondary that will be without Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine again this week.
DraftKings Price – $7,100 | FanDuel Price – $7,500
Cooks was quiet last week, which allowed for his priced on DraftKings to not overreact to the quality of this matchup and the Cooper Kupp injury. This is going to be a rare high volume spot for Cooks who is not only amongst the NFL leaders in yards per route run at 2.66, but is matched up with a corner, Ahkello Witherspoon, that gives up a near-league-worst 2.28 yards allowed per route run.
DraftKings Price – $4,300 | FanDuel Price – $5,700
We predicted Njoku would see a spike in targets when Mayfield took over the QB job. He was the rookie QB’s favorite target this preseason, and has seen his role in the offense grow each week. The Bucs secondary has been extremely favorable to opposing tight ends this seaosn, ranking 29th in DVOA and giving up just under 100 YPG. Njoku has reached 3x his current price in two straight games, and those came against the Ravens and Chargers… he should have his biggest game of the season in week 7.
DraftKings Price – $3,600 | FanDuel Price – $5,800
While I think Ertz, Ebron, and Kittle are all solid plays this week, I think you have to go with value at the TE spot in week 7 if you are going to pay up at the RB spot. Howard was surprisingly able to play last week, but was unsurprisingly on a slight pitch count. Even so he was able to catch 4 of 4 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. On the season he is averaging over 3x his current DraftKings salary, and this is arguably his best matchup to date. The Browns were the worst defense vs tight ends last season, and have skewed numbers this year because they have really only faced one pass catching tight end. That was Jared Cook and he put up 8/110/2 in week three. Howard logged full practices all week and should get back up to the 70% snap count we saw him get through the first month of the season.