NFL Week 11 DFS Lineup Strategy, Picks and Sleepers

NFL Week 11 DFS Lineup Strategy, Picks and Sleepers

Top NFL Week 11 Vegas Totals

TeamOpponentProj. Total
New EnglandOakland30
New OrleansWashington29.75
Kansas CityNY Giants27.25
MinnesotaLA Rams24.5
LA ChargersBuffalo23.75
OaklandNew England23.5

Week 11 FanDuel and DraftKings QB Plays

PlayerOpponentFanDuel PriceDraftKings Price
Tom BradyOakland$8,600$7,400
Jay CutlerTampa Bay$6,600$5,400
Eli ManningKansas City$6,500$5,700

This is a weird QB slate, I think you are okay starting any of the top 9 quarterbacks in this slate, all have good enough matchups to at least hit 2x value. Looking at matchups and ceilings, Brady arguably has the best matchup and highest ceiling. If you choose to pay up for Brady at QB, you are shooting for a 30+ point week, something he hasn’t done since his week 2. That being said, the Raiders have the NFL’s softest secondary, with an opponent QB rating of 110.5 and a TD/INT ratio of 14/0.

Speaking of soft secondaries, the Bucs can’t cover anybody and are even worse when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. While the pass rush looked better last week, it was against Josh McCown who holds the ball for an eternity. Cutler and Gase appear to finally be clicking, and given the matchup, I think you can expect Jay to have his best game of the season in week 11.

Eli Manning has the third most passing attempts in the NFL this season, but clearly has struggled with poor offensive line play and a lack of big play receivers on the outside. With Sterling Shepard back, an improving rapport with Roger Lewis, and the emergence of Engram, this passing attack isn’t the juggernaut it was thought to be, but should have better days ahead. The Chiefs are going to shred the Giants, so look for Manning to have another 50+ attempt day and to cash in on this matchup with a secondary that gives up the 5th most passing YPG on the season.

Week 11 FanDuel and DraftKings RB Plays

PlayerOpponentFanDuel PriceDraftKings Price
Kareem HuntNY Giants$8,600$8,000
LeSean McCoyLA Chargers$8,000$7,800
Melvin GordonBuffalo$7,800$7,600

If Andy Reid can’t figure out how to get his running game and Kareem Hunt rolling again in this matchup, you may as well write off the season for the Chiefs. The Giants come in having given up 58-269-3 over the past two games, and are now allowing the third most rushing YPG in the league and are surrendering 4.4 YPC. This should be a 150+ yards and multi-touchdown game for Hunt.

Speaking of backs that are due… With Peterman making his first career start, the Bills should lean on McCoy heavily and get back to the ground and pound game that got them to 5-2 to start the season. The Chargers give up the most rushing YPG, 4.7 YPC, and nearly 23 fantasy PPG to opposing running backs.

As good as the matchup is for Shady, it may not be the best RB matchup in the game. Buffalo has been shredded over the past month, giving up just under 36 fantasy PPG to opposing backs, and over 35 fantasy points to opposing backs in 3 straight games. Gordon hasn’t seen a full workload since the Oakland game over a month ago. Look for him to get over 25 touches again here, and to put up his highest fantasy total of the season.

Week 11 FanDuel and DraftKings WR Plays

PlayerOpponentFanDuel PriceDraftKings Price
Dez BryantPhiladelphia$7,400$6,200
Jarvis LandryTampa Bay$6,800$6,400
Sterling ShepardKansas City$6,500$6,300
Bruce EllingtonArizona$4,600$3,000

Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott are both due to have a massive bounce-back week in a prime time divisional matchup at home. Dez should see plenty of Ronald Darby on Sunday, a matchup Dallas should be able to pick on. Darby has really struggled this season and is Pro Football Focus’ lowest graded starting DB.

Speaking of dream matchups… The Bucs are playing Vernon Hargreaves in the slot, which means he will be facing the NFL’s best slot receiver in Jarvis Landry this week. While we still love the upside and big play ability of Parker outside, Landry has consistently produced all season. Both players will be solid starts in week 11.

Sterling Shepard is going to see a ton of targets for the remainder of the season. He saw 22 in his first two weeks back after injury and should be even busier this week given the fact that he will be lined up across from Steven Nelson, the only nickel DB in the league that could make Hargreaves look good. Nelson is PFF’s 5th lowest rated DB in the NFL, and should find himself getting picked on early and often this week.

Our favorite near-minimum player on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week is Bruce Ellington. Ellington produced another big game with Fuller out last week making it 8/100/2 in two games without him this season. We expect Patrick Peterson to shadow Hopkins on Sunday, leaving Ellington to work with a slightly easier matchup with Tramon Williams.

Week 11 FanDuel and DraftKings TE Plays

PlayerOpponentFanDuel PriceDraftKings Price
Zach ErtzDallas$8,000$6,800
Travis KelceTampa Bay$7.500$7,300

With plenty of value at QB and WR this week, you should be able to pay up at the tight end position, and this is a great week to do so. Zach Ertz has been the most consistent tight end in fantasy football this season, and should keep it going against Dallas this week. Dallas doesn’t look like a great DVOA matchup for the TE position, but with Sean Lee out things change dramatically. Look for Ertz to perhaps have his biggest game of the season against the Cowboys backup LB’s.

Kelce gets a dream matchup with a Giants defense that has given up a tight end touchdown in every game this season. Kelce comes into this week red hot, having scored in 3 straight with 3 20+ point games on the year. Ertz has been huge in far tougher matchups, so we expect him to have a field day in week 11.

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