Week 10 is here! If we include the decent slates we get the first two weeks of the NFL playoffs, week 10 is just about the mid way point of the fantasy football season. We have six teams on bye next week, but with just four on bye this week (Denver, Minnesota, Baltimore, Houston) we have a 11 game slate in week 10.
Week 10 : Focusing on Contest Selection
Before we jump into the unusually high implied totals for this slate, I want dedicate a short rant to contest selection this week.
I was speaking with a friend and casual DFS player this past weekend who claimed to have lost playing many of the same players I used last weekend. When asked what contests he entered he said the Millionaire Maker and a bunch of the smaller GPP’s like the Play-Action.
My average DraftKings lineup last week was right around 175-180 points, we were on Goff, McCaffrey, Kamara, OJ Howard, and had either the Bears or Dolphins in every lineup. That put me right in the top 5% of GPP lineups, a really good week by most standards.
Here is the issue, top 5% in the Play-Action is the group that includes the 16,000-26,000 finishers who win $10 on their $3 ticket. So you have to finish in the top 5% to triple your money. Why not just play triple up contests where the top 30% triple their money? The cash line in many of those contests was under 150 points.
The argument we get back to that point is that they like the idea of winning $100+ on a $3 ticket. It’s basically like playing the lottery. It’s exactly like playing the lottery. To win $100+ in the Play-Action GPP you have to place in the top 150 out of 495,400 entries. That is the top .03% meaning most weeks you need 215+ points out of a lineup to have a shot at $100+.
If you are someone that struggles with contest selection challenge yourself to try this for one week. Even if you just build 2 lineups and play $20 total, make an effort to have $10 in smaller 50/50 contests, $6 in double up contests, and $4 in triple ups. Then compare the results with what you have done in other weeks so far this year. End rant.
As we mentioned, week 10 has some of the higher implied totals that we have seen this season… we have some really good offenses facing some really bad defenses. Here is a look at the top totals for this slate, and our favorite targets for week 10 contests.
Top Week 10 Promotions
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DraftKings Price – $6,000 | FanDuel Price – $8,200
Any concern with Rivers this week has nothing to do with form, on the season he is averaging. The problem is volume. With as good as the running game has been this season, the Chargers have leaned on Gordon in an effort to keep their defense off the field. As a result Rivers has averaged less than 25 attempts per game over his past four. That being said, he’s averaged over 18 fantasy PPG over that stretch so he has remained efficient. It’s hard to imagine him not hitting 4x value in this matchup with a Raiders defense that is quickly closing the gap between themselves and Tampa as the worst pass defense in the NFL.
DraftKings Price – $6,000 | FanDuel Price – $8,300
When in doubt, go with the Goat. This is the third or fourth time we have targeted the Titans secondary this season, and each time I have said the same thing: don’t trust the numbers and don’t trust the names. This Titans secondary is vulnerable and it shows when they face a decent QB (Watson – 310/2, Rivers – 306/2, Wentz – 350/2). Brady has shredded the Titans (as he has most teams) with a career passer rating of 109.4 against the Titans. In addition to the passing game having an advantage, Tennessee’s top 10 run defense should be able to contain Sony Michel, they are only allowing 41.1 YPC and have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns all season.
Week 10 Running Back Targets
DraftKings Price – $8,500 | FanDuel Price – $9,000
Hunt is on an absolute tear right now and is set up nicely to be the focal point of the Chiefs offense once again this week. Kansas City faces a Cardinals secondary that is actually allowing the second fewest fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks. On the other side of the equation, they are surrendering the second most fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s. If Kansas City is going to hit their 33 point implied total then Hunt is going to have a massive fantasy day.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 4, 2018
DraftKings Price – $6,800 | FanDuel Price – $6,900
The only team that gives up more fantasy PPG to opposing running backs than the Cardinals is the Chiefs. While the fantasy production and stat line didn’t quite show it, DJ’s usage was much better than in previous weeks. He ran more routes for one, which will result in a much bigger role in the passing attack moving forward. This week he faces a defense that is 32nd in DVOA vs the run and 29th in DVOA vs RB’s in the passing game.
DraftKings Price – $4,300 | FanDuel Price – $5,800
If Carson is out this week, Davis becomes a must-start on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Seahawks are the best running offense in football, and this matchup with the Rams favors the Seattle running game. LA is giving up the 8th highest YPC in the NFL at 4.7, and you would assume Seattle will want to keep the ball away from Goff and Gurley by taking advantage of that mismatch. The fact that he played so many passing downs and caught 7 of 8 targets only assures that he’s a factor regardless of game flow this week.
Week 10 Wide Receiver Targets
DraftKings Price – $7,000 | FanDuel Price – $7,500
Evans will likely see low ownership % on DraftKings this week. Washington’s perceived toughness against the pass, his horrible week 9 performance, and his injury designation all but assure he will not be a popular pick. That being said, we noted with our Julio pick last week that opposing WR1’s are actually shredding the Redskins right now. In fact, they are giving up 97 yards per game to opposing #1 WR’s, worst in the NFL. While some have pointed to Fitz’s return as an issue for Evans, it’s important to remember that he averaged 27 DraftKings PPG over the first three weeks of this season.
DraftKings Price – $4,900 | FanDuel Price – $5,400
I’ll admit it, based off of numbers alone, this one is a tough sell. However, I have given Gabriel only one other time this season and that was his 5/110 game against the Dolphins in week 6. All we are trying to do here is figure out who Teez Tabor is going to be covering, and it will likely be Gabriel when he’s lined up in the slot. Tabor is the worst CB in football. He’s allowing a perfect QB rating on the season, and gave up 4 catches on 4 targets and committed 2 penalties in 14 snaps last week. Nagy will find a way to hit some big ones with Gabriel in week 10.
DraftKings Price – $3,900 | FanDuel Price – $5,900
A lot like Davis, Harris is an easy start this week if everybody that missed practice on Wednesday is actually out this week. That list includes Crowder, Thompson, and Reed in addition to the season ending injury Paul Richardson suffered. Harris is a solid player that can fill that possession receiver role that Doctson clearly can not. His volume should remain if the other guys in this passing game are out, and it comes in a dream matchup with the worst secondary in football.
DraftKings Price – $3,900 | FanDuel Price – $5,600
Clearly Ross and Boyd are both going to be popular this week. Dalton has been consistent all season, and the top 2 receivers in this offense have arguably been the best duo in the NFL. I don’t love the player, but am betting on Lazor finding a way to utilize what Ross does well this week. Whether it’s in the screen game, or deep in play action, he does have big play ability that should compliment the consistency they get from Boyd.
Week 10 Tight End Targets
DraftKings Price – $5,600 | FanDuel Price – $6,900
It’s hard to believe we had to wait until week 10 to have our first Gronk sighting of the season… and he may not even play this week! If pressed to give a pick to stack with Brady this week, I would probably go with Gronk. The Titans haven’t faced a dynamic tight end yet this season aside from Zach Ertz and they let him rack up 10/114.
DraftKings Price – $3,900 | FanDuel Price – $6,100
Easiest pick of the week… we started here when prepping the article. Detroit can not figure out the tight end position. They are 30th in the NFL in DVOA vs the position again this season, and Burton comes in having scored 5 touchdowns in his last 7 games. We saw in the game against New England that he can be the focal point of this offense when the matchup dictates it.