FanDuel NBA Plays for the 1/17 NBA Slate
Football season must be wrapping up if we are publishing an NBA article… NBA was the sport we cut our teeth on, our FanDuel NBA guide remains one of our most-read articles. That being said, we generally wait until this part of the season to make a hard push with our daily strategy articles. We now have a considerable sample size to base our research off from, and can put much more time into our NBA research.
This first slate is just five games, with some nice matchups and only one megastar in Harden. The strategy we share today will fade Harden, but I certainly wouldn’t call him a must-fade in this matchup with the Heat. Harden averaged over 20 points and 10 assists against the Heat last season, but while his usage is obviously up even more this year Miami is one of the better scoring and FG % defenses in the league.
Before we jump into who we will be playing tonight, here is a quick look at the Vegas lines for this slate:
FanDuel Price : $9,000
While Lowry doesn’t have the 80 point upside that Harden has, he does have a much better matchup and comes into this matchup in great form. Despite playing just 28 minutes and scoring just 16 points on Sunday, Lowry is averaging 43 PPG over his last 10 games, roughly 4.8x value. Just how solid is this matchup? The Nets come in allowing the most FanDuel PPG to opposing PGs at 50.94, and the second most to opposing 2 guards at 41.06. Look for Lowry to have one of this best performances of the season, which would mean scoring 55-60 FanDuel points.
FanDuel Price – $4,800
With Garry Harris back out again, Barton should see a considerable bump in minutes and production, and it couldn’t come in a better matchup. Both the Nuggets and the Lakers hover in the top 5 in the NBA in pace, and both are in the bottom 5 in Def vs SG, giving up more than 40 PPG to the position. He’ll have to share the usage with Gallo and Chandler, but the bulk of the minutes should go to Barton.
FanDuel Price – $4,600
After struggling through injury for the better part of the first half of the season, Carroll finally put together a solid week last week averaging 19 and 6 in just over 31 minutes. Generally we would need to see another solid game or two before buying in, but this matchup is so favorable, I think you are safe to role out Carroll tonight with a 4x floor.
FanDuel Price : $8,500
Do you remember how the Lakers justified bringing in Mozgov as a defensive presence at center? That’s not quite working out… The Lakers were weak against the center position pre-Nance injury, but have been atrocious since the second year player went down. In fact, over their last four games, the Lakers are giving up over 70 PPG to opposing centers. Couple that with the fact that Jokic comes in red hot, and I think this is a perfect storm. Over his last two games, Jokic has seen his usage rate climb nearly 7 % points and has put in back-to-back 6x+ performances.
FanDuel Price – $3,800
Feels like a Nogueira night… In the primo matchup for opposing centers, Lucas has thrived this season. The Nets give up a league-high 53.6 FanDuel PPG to opposing 5-men, and Nogueira has averaged over 27 (over 7x value) in two games against them this season. Given the fact that he’s playing season high minutes over his past 10 games, and owns this matchup, I would argue his floor tonight is 5x, you have to start him.