Week four is here which means we finally have a decent sample size and enough film to somewhat know what each team is all about. It also means bye weeks have officially started, with the Panthers and Redskins off this week resulting in a 12 game main slate on FanDuel.
Taking a look at the game lines for this week, missing at the top is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs take on the Broncos on Monday night in what should be another shootout. The Broncos secondary is going through growing pains and the Chiefs defense is a disaster right now. We really like Kelce, Keenum, and Emmanuel Sanders in that game, but will leave them off this article as they aren’t part of the Sunday Million slate, which is what we have traditionally used for these weekly articles.
There really isn’t that shootout style game that we have seen in recent weeks in this slate. The three games we would consider candidates to be shootouts are: Houston at Indy, Cincinnati at Atlanta, and New Orleans at NY Giants. The Chargers have the highest implied total, but I don’t think Rivers is throwing much in the fourth quarter, and the 49ers run defense has actually been fairly solid giving up just 3.7 per and less than 100 YPG.
FanDuel Price: $7,300
We expect Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, and Andy Dalton to be the chalk plays at QB this week, but also like both quarterbacks in this Indy/Houston game. Houston remains one of the 2 or 3 most favorable QB matchups in the NFL. While Watt and the defensive line are doing their part with an adjusted sack rate approaching 8%, however they are completely deficient in the secondary allowing an opponent QB rating of 119.9, a 73.33% opponent completion percentage, and 7.9 YPA… all of which are bottom 5 in the NFL. Despite the extremely rough start, Luck’s adjust QBR is still 12th best in the NFL, meaning he has played a brutal schedule and his production has also suffered from a league high amount of yardage called back for penalty. This should be a get right game for him with Castonzo looking like he will be back to help slow down that Texans pass rush.
FanDuel Price: $6,800
It’s hard to trust Trubisky as he has never had a 25+ point fantasy game in his career, but we are betting he has his first this week. The Bucs are 29th in the NFL in opponent QB DVOA, they are 29th in fantasy points allowed to QB’s, they are 29th in yards per pass attempt, and they are 32nd in opponent completion percentage. Trubisky is an easy stack with Allen Robinson, and I even think Burton and Cohen could be solid fliers this week. The Bears may be 1st in the NFC North, but you know Nagy wants this offense to get rolling sooner rather than later.
Running Back Targets
FanDuel Price: $8,200
Elliott is our lock of the week at RB for week four. He is due to have a 35+ point breakout and this matchup with the Lions is just what he needs. Detroit is dead last in both rushing yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per carry. The offensive line will never be what it was, but Zeke’s nearly 6 YPC and fantasy production despite a lack of a role in the passing game hint that he could still be one of the top fantasy RB’s this season.
FanDuel Price: $6,400
While the Mixon injury opened the door for Bernard to take over as the workhorse back in this offense, it could be AJ Green’s injury that turns him into fantasy gold this week. If Green is out, this Cinci offense will suffer from it’s lack of pass catching depth. John Ross looked like a weapon throughout camp and the preseason, but his performance last week was about as bad as we have seen and it would be a complete shock if he received any volume of targets moving forward. Look for Dalton and Lazor to lean heavily on Bernard and Eifert in a favorable matchup with a Falcons defense that is giving up the 2nd most fantasy PPG this season and have been decimated by injury at safety and linebacker.
Wide Receiver Targets
Odell Beckham Jr.
FanDuel Price: $8,600
While we gave Shepard out as a target in our DraftKings article, it’s Beckham that is truly in line to have a breakout game here. The Saints are dead last in the NFL in DVOA on deep routes and
fantasy PPG allowed to opposing receivers (63.3 PPG!!). That is a combination that bodes well for OBJ. Any way you look at this matchup it stacks up favorably for Beckham, the Saints struggle against the types of routes he runs, they are 31st vs opposing #1 receivers, and he has killed the Saints in his career averaging 28 fantasy PPG.
FanDuel Price: $7,600
He will forever make our targets list until he doesn’t score a touchdown in a game he starts with Watson. He has scored touchdowns in 6 straight games with Watson, with 9 touchdowns over that stretch. While Indy’s pass defense has been better than expected, they are still dead last in the NFL in time of possession, and are actually 28th in DVOA vs opposing number 2 receivers. Again, he has six straight articles when active with Watson, and stays until he doesn’t score.
FanDuel Price: $7,300
T.Y. Hilton has been a top 10 fantasy receiver every season he’s played with Andrew Luck, and we are betting the two of them get back to that trend this week. In addition to everything we mentioned with Luck, Hilton should be able to break some big plays individually, as the Texans gave up more big passing plays than anyone last season and are already 26th in that category this year.
FanDuel Price: $5,600
Not only has Robinson’s target share been great this season, but where he is being targeted is about as good as you can hope for in fantasy. He has been targeted deep, short, on 3rd down, and 6 times in the red zone. The production has been decent, but not the WR1 numbers we saw with Jacksonville. While I don’t think he ever returns to that level, we do expect him to have a WR1 25-30 point week here.
Tight End Targets
FanDuel Price: $5,500
This is a dream matchup for Ebron… with a soft pass defense and no Jack Doyle to split targets with. Houston is currently dead last in DVOA vs opposing tight ends, and he gets a Captain Luck that should be hungry to shake off doubters after getting pulled for the hail mary last week. At $5,500 Ebron likely doesn’t have 4x upside, but I think he’s close to a lock to hit 3x here.
FanDuel Price: $4,600
Eifert is our favorite tight end target this week. His role, production, and snap count have been steadily increasing, and this week he faces an extremely beatable Falcons defense. Atlanta is missing the majority of their starters that could have matched up with Eifert, and we expect OC Lazor to pick on his mismatch throughout the game and particularly in the red zone.