We previewed the week 2 FanDuel slate earlier in the week, so you can find the usual rundown of Vegas lines, positional matchups, and more there. This article will focus on our favorite picks at QB/RB/WR/TE, including some non-chalk sleepers.
Week Two QB Picks
Anyone that follows our picks knows that we rarely pay up at QB… we were on Goff and Wentz last week, but this is an exception. The Patriots are clearly looking for a statement game after an embarrassing opening night performance, and are matched up with a Saints secondary that clearly has improved, but has a ton of youth and scheme issues. I think Brady/Cooks is the top stack, but will certainly have some Brady/Gronk in play as well this week.
There is a group of quarterbacks we like in this range, but Winston possibly has the best matchup, at home, and Koetter has had 2 weeks to build a gameplan. Look for the Bucs passing game to bring the force of Irma down on a fairly porous Bears secondary that was PFF’s 30th ranked unit heading into the 2017 season.
Week Two RB Picks
The Broncos run defense came out tough against Melvin Gordon, but on the ground is clearly the way to beat Denver, and the Cowboys offensive line is perhaps the one unit in the NFL that can bully that front 7. While the Broncos may seem like a scary matchup, it’s a considerably softer one than they saw in the Giants in week one. Denver was one of the all time best teams against the pass last season, but were bottom 10 vs the run. Zeke saw 29 touches in week one, and we would expect that to be the workload moving forward.
The matchup isn’t particularly great, we would consider Philly a middle of the pack run defense, but how do you not have some shares of a RB that went for 43 in his first game as a pro? Truthfully, I think it’s his role in the passing game that makes Hunt so intriguing this week, as the Eagles secondary lacks a ton of skill and has been coached to bend but not break.
Kerwynn Williams is clearly going to be a fairly chalk bargain play this week, but I wouldn’t totally fade him. He will see all of the early down work and goal line work, and give up passing downs to Andre Ellington. I think he will still find a way to catch a handful of passes, the Cardinals won’t totally eliminate that part of their game plan. Look for a 16/60/1, 3/28 type line and right around 3x value.
Week Two WR Picks
They didn’t look particularly great this preseason, but we aren’t waiting to pull the trigger on the Winston/Evans stack. The Bears just flat out don’t have a corner capable of shutting down Evans, he will see bracket coverage similar to what they did to Julio last week, but Evans is a target machine in this offense so Julio’s 3/66 on just 4 targets isn’t apples to apples because there is no way Evans isn’t targets 8-12 times here.
If you can find a way to squeeze Julio, Mike, and Cooks into your lineup, go for it. There is certainly enough value at the other spots in your roster to make it work. (see right)
We were wrong with our Cooks pick last Thursday… our thinking was that Cooks would play some role in the short passing game with Edelman gone, citing the fact that Amendola can’t handle being tackled more than once per game. It was in fact Amendola that got Edelman’s work, but as expected, he’s now broken. Cooks should see a ton of targets in a game that we think the Pats run up the score.
Fool us once… we come back for more. We missed bigly on Bryant last week, and certainly planned on writing his off against the Vikings. However, the more I look at this game, the more I like Bryant. We know Xavier Rhodes will shadow AB, and we know the walking yellow hankie Trae Waynes will likely draw Bryant on the opposite side. The Steelers, at home, had better find a way to abuse that mismatch or we may just write them off completely this season.
Marqise Lee is one of those guys that we have been waiting to get an opportunity. He’s had to overcome playing with Bortles, playing alongside Allen Robinson, and playing in an offense that is now extremely run-heavy, but this may be the week that he is finally relevant. I can’t buy the Jags finding success on the ground against a Titans defense that gave up less than 90 rushing YPG last season, and I also don’t buy that Bortles is now completely inept. The Titans secondary is clearly below average, and Lee is a receiver that has a knack for getting open. He could become a PPR monster in matchups like these for the remainder of this season.
Week Two TE Picks
Like the Pats, Gronk is now due. After looking great in limited work this preseason, Gronk fell flat against a Chiefs defense that clearly figured something out in the second half against last week. Look for him to abuse a young, small, weak secondary in his week 2 matchup with the Saints.
Kittle was active, but somewhat disappointing in week one. Given that fact, and the fact that he faces the Seahawks in what looks to be a blowout in week 2, I expect him to be extremely underowned here. The Seahawks have traditionally been susceptible to giving up big games to opposing tight ends and have had a DVOA vs TE in the bottom half of the league for four straight seasons.