We don’t have to wake up and scramble to set lineups before a London game this week, but the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings is still just a 10 game slate with 6 teams on bye. Bye teams this week include the Bengals, Cardinals, Colts, Eagles, Giants, and Jaguars.
As always, we begin with a look at the top implied team totals from current game lines at BetNow for this slate:
Note: I mentioned earlier this season that this would be an off week for us. This will likely be the only article for week 9, and we will resume our regular content schedule for week 10.
Week 9 Quarterback Targets
FanDuel Price – $8,600 | DraftKings Price – $6,600
Not much to say here… It doesn’t matter what QB faces this Bucs defense, we are owning shares. When it’s Cam Newton, averaging 4x+ over his past 6 games we are all in. There is no way Cam doesn’t hit at least 25 points this week. He has averaged over 10 DraftKings PPG as a runner against the Bucs over the past 5 seasons, and now faces a Bucs secondary that is giving up 320 passing YPG with a 20/1 TD/INT ratio… it’s a lock.
FanDuel Price – $7,100 | DraftKings Price – $5,500
In games that Fitzpatrick starts and plays the entire game he is averaging 7x value. He nearly hit 4x value in a half of work last week. Combine that production with the fact that the Panthers secondary has looked abysmal at times this season, and I think Fitz could be a lock to hit 4x this week. Carolina’s secondary looked better last week, and continues to create turnovers, but had been torched for the 5 games leading up to last week. Fitz clearly has a grip on this offense and has been able to get the most out of the ridiculous group of weapons he has around him.
Week 9 Running Back Targets
FanDuel Price – $7,900 | DraftKings Price – $7,800
The Kwon Alexander injury is going to be devastating for this Bucs defense that could at least stop the run prior to him going down. We were on Joe Mixon last week, and think McCaffrey is in line for his best game of the season this week. The Bucs are 29th in the NFL in DVOA to pass catching running backs, and we expect that number to continue to drop as this season plays out.
FanDuel Price – $8,000 | DraftKings Price – $7,300
We warned that we thought the Saints would use Ingram’s first game back as an additional bye week for an overworked Alvin Kamara. Sure enough his snap count dropped to 55% (49% for Ingram) but last week we saw Kamara’s snap count jump back up to 72% and the usage returned right along with it. The weakness of this Rams defense is it’s linebackers and nobody in the NFL exploits opposing LB’s better than Kamara. Goff will put up points on this Saints defense, and it will be on Brees and Kamara to keep up.
FanDuel Price – $6,600 | DraftKings Price – $4,500
This is the week Chubb owners should be able to cash in on the 20 touches per game he has seen since the Hyde trade. Kansas City is dead last in DVOA vs the run and just about every run defense category that matters. If the Browns want any hope of staying in this game they need to get Chubb to 20+ carries and take advantage of the Chiefs run defense while playing keep away from Mahomes. The Chiefs are giving up 33 fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s on the season… Chubb needs 14 to reach value this week.
Week 9 Wide Receiver Targets
FanDuel Price – $8,500 | DraftKings Price – $7,900
I get the Redskins defense has been off the charts this season, and they are 2nd in the NFL in time of possession, but give me Julio Jones vs anybody. The reality here is that Washington is top 10 against opposing #2 receivers, tight ends, running backs, and only gives up 3.8 YPC. Do we really expect Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to get shut out? On the season the Redskins are giving up 9/90 to opposing #1 receivers and that includes games against Dallas, Carolina, and Arizona who don’t have #1 receivers. The matchup is overrated and Julio is underpriced at $7,900.
FanDuel Price – $5,100 | DraftKings Price – $4,200
I think if Rhodes plays in week 8 we are looking at Smith completely differently. The fact that Minnesota had to change their defensive philosophy, play a shell cover two, took away the opportunity for Smith to beat man coverage for big plays. The undefeated Rams have allowed the most 40+ yard plays in the league this season, and obviously this game could turn into a track meet that creates plenty of opportunity for playmakers on both sides of the ball.
FanDuel Price – $5,500 | DraftKings Price – $3,900
We have picked on the Houston secondary throughout this season, and think both Sutton and Sanders are solid plays for week 9. In addition to Will Fuller, the Texans lost Jonathan Joseph on Thursday night, which makes this secondary even more beatable. Sutton should see double digit targets through the end of the year, and despite the fact that Houston’s defense has been playing better, we see this as a plus-matchup for the rookie.
Week 9 Tight End Targets
FanDuel Price – $6,200 | DraftKings Price – $4,700
Tampa bay is the tight end matchup to target right now. They are allowing over 80 YPG to opposing tight ends on less than 8 targets per game. Olsen is coming off of his best game since returning from injury, and I think Carolina’s offense will have to score a bunch of points given the way their secondary is playing right now.
FanDuel Price – $6,000 | DraftKings Price – $4,300
While we don’t want to continue to pick on this game, I think Howard is in line to have a big week here as well. The Panthers are right behind the Bucs in terms of production allowed to the tight end position (78.7 YPG on 8.1 TPG). Combine that with the fact that Howard has been within a point of 3x value in 5 of his last 6 while playing through an injury, and I think this is as close to a lock as you will find this week.