DraftKings Week 5 College Football Picks and Lineup Strategy

DraftKings Week 5 College Football Picks and Lineup Strategy

Week 5 of the college football season is already here, and the majority of the games on this slate are conference games which generally means tighter spreads. That being said, 6 out of the 10 games in this slate have a spread over 20, but that is more of a reflection the teams at the top of this slate than the quality of the opponents. Anytime you get Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia in a 10 game slate you are going to see some high spreads.

With that in mind, those four teams find themselves at the top of our implied totals chart for this slate. Of theses 8 teams, only the West Virginia/Texas Tech game has a spread under 17.

Texas A&M41
Oklahoma State40
West Virginia39
Texas Tech36

Most college football DFS players see that WVU/TT game as a chance for an offensive explosion, and it likely will be, but it’s worth keeping in mind these are two coaches with identical coaching trees.

Holgorsen was a receiver coach on the Texas Tech staff when Kingsbury was a quarterback there. They then coached together while sharing an apartment in Houston. Anytime you get two coaches that know one another’s system so well there is a chance that they are able to take away some of the things they know the other guy wants to do.

That isn’t to say this is a game to avoid, we are just saying don’t assume the combined 678/9/2 line the QB’s put up in this matchup last season are a given again this year.

Just some notes on several questions I received over the past week:

  • Last week was a planned week off, I wrote about it before the start of the season, but should have reminded everyone of it in the week three article. The next week off will be the November 3rd slate.
  • I received a bunch of requests throughout last weekend for some places that I would recommend guys do their own research, Football Outsiders and this Google Doc are great places to start.
  • I realize our CFB guide is over a year old, and we are in the process of reworking it.

Quarterback Picks for CFB Week 5 on DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

DraftKings Price: $8,500
First start, true freshman… let’s do it. There are few quarterbacks that you see play and just know it’s different than 99.99% of the guys that play the game at the college level. For me the list includes guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Jared Goff, and you can add Trevor Lawrence to that list. He has taken way less than half of his team’s snaps (120 to Bryant’s 128 and third string Brice has a bunch as well) and still averages 15.1 DraftKings PPG. We don’t need to say too much about the matchup, Syracuse is somewhat improved and will likely be a bowl team, but are still one of the more favorable FBS matchups. They allow nearly 8 yards per attempt, 260 yards per game, and an opponent passer rating of over 127.

David Blough

DraftKings Price: $7,600
We were surprised that Blough wasn’t able to beat out Elijah Sindelar from the start of the season, but he is now officially the starter and should be a solid fantasy play moving forward. Blough is experienced and accurate and faces a Nebraska defense that appears to has mailed it in on this season. Averaging over 32 DraftKings PPG as a starter, this is arguably the most favorable matchup Blough has seen this season. He’s an easy stack with Rondale Moore.

Charlie Brewer

DraftKings Price: $5,900
Obviously Brewer’s price, which is 5x value for his PPG average, is a reflection of the matchup with Oklahoma. That being said, this Oklahoma defense is nowhere near as good as what we have seen in recent years and the Bears will be able to move the ball this weekend. We can assume Baylor will be playing from behind and throwing it a bunch with Oklahoma being a 23 point favorite. Brewer is also a good runner averaging 6 DraftKings PPG on the ground.

Running Back Picks for CFB Week 5 on DraftKings

Travis Etienne

DraftKings Price: $7,400
In addition to Lawrence (a pro-style QB) starting, Bryant’s departure opens up over 7 carries per game and should also give Etienne additional looks with less men in the box. Etienne put up 284 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 27 carries over his last two games. Despite averaging just under 30 DraftKings PPG over those two games, and arguably having an even better matchup this week, his DraftKings salary dropped nearly $1,000. We expect Etienne to have one of his better games as the top Clemson RB.

Trey Sermon

DraftKings Price: $
Clearly we are yet to see Sermon get a full workload as the starting RB for the Sooners. Kyler Murray was on fire in his first start, and Oklahoma only had 15 minutes of possession in his last start. I think this is the week he gets to 20 carries and finally has that breakout game that we are used to seeing from guys like Perine, Mixon, and Anderson. Baylor gave up over 5 YPC last season and gave up 6.4 YPC to Pooka Williams last week.

Tavien Feaster

DraftKings Price: $4,100
We all know how special an athlete Travis Etienne is, I wrote just two weeks ago that his first 10 yards is the quickest I have ever seen, but Feaster is a sub 4.4 guy as well and has steadily been earning more and more snaps. He has scored in two straight games, and had by far his best game of the season 8/75/1 last week against Georgia Tech. If Lawrence gets the Tigers up early Feaster could end up being a nice value play as they run out the clock in the second half.

Wide Receiver Picks for CFB Week 5 on DraftKings

Rondale Moore

DraftKings Price: $8,200
Rondale Moore’s target share in this explosive Boilermaker offense is up to 27.4% and I think it needs to go even higher. On the year he has caught 33 of 43 targets for 372 yards and 4 touchdowns… and he’s added 132 yards rushing and a touchdown. If Purdue hadn’t played Eastern Michigan in an absolute monsoon he would be the #1 fantasy receiver in college football. In the other three games he’s played he is averaging just under 40 PPG. That includes games against a ranked Mizzou and tough defenses in Northwestern and Boston College. Anybody that watched the Nebraska-Michigan game last week knows this is not a tough defense.

Marquise Brown

DraftKings Price: $7,700
Speaking of team target %’s, Marquise Brown comes into week five with a 29% target share for the Sooners, which is the highest in the Big 12 and 10th highest in all of college football. Baylor’s secondary has been relatively untested this season, but gave up over 250 YPG last year. This could end up being a 50+ point game for the Sooners, and if it is Brown has 200+ yards and 2 touchdown upside.

Tee Higgins

DraftKings Price: $5,700
Higgins wasn’t originally part of this article, but we were asked what one player should benefit the most from Lawrence taking over and the answer is Tee Higgins. He is arguably the most talented Clemson receiver, and has one of the highest ceilings in all of college football, but needs more targets. We saw a glimpse of his ability in his 3/123/1 game against A&M, and we think he puts up a similar line in an extremely favorable matchup with Syracuse at home.

DraftKings Week 5 CFB WR Picks

Isaiah Zuber

DraftKings Price: $5,800
Obviously Zuber will be a popular pick priced at $5,800, a salary that he has been around 5x in 3 of his first 4 games. This Texas defense is improved, but are still vulnerable against the pass and have historically struggled in Manhattan. Even if Texas is able to jump on the Wildcats, Zuber will be extremely busy given he is another receiver with an almost 28% target share.

Sean Riley

DraftKings Price: $4,000
Eric Dungey through for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns and beat the Tigers last season. Not happening again. That being said, he’s unlikely to get shut out here and will likely see added volume playing from behind. Sean Riley has quietly emerged as the team’s leading receiver over the past three weeks and has closed the gap in target/receptions/yardage/touchdowns on Custis over that stretch. Look for Riley to work out of the slot and act as a nice security blanket for Dungey again this week. At just $4,000 he has nice value upside.

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