DraftKings NFL Week 7 Lineup Strategy, Picks, Bargains
As we approach the halfway point of the NFL season, our picks have been somewhat down over the last two weeks. Last week we reached 3x+ with both of our QB’s and TE’s, but hit on only 1/3 RB’s and 3/4 WR’s… in a week where they both looked like locks on paper, Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell failed to find the end zone and killed our lineups.
We feel better about our week 7 picks, and in addition to 2 big name RB’s and WR’s, we have included 5 players under $4,300 that should be on your radar this week. Here is a look at the Millionaire Maker slate and the Vegas totals for the Sunday games.
NFL Week 7 DraftKings QB Picks
DraftKings Price – $6,200
The Jags face an Oakland defense that has been one of the more disappointing units in football this season. Given the offseason improvements and another offseason in the Ken Norton system, we fully expected this defense to take another step forward in 2016. They have moved the opposite direction, and have the dreaded combination of little-to-no pass rush, and terrible coverage on the back end. The results speak for themselves: 28th in sacks, 28th in opponent QB rating, 32nd in opponent passing yards per game, and 32nd in yards per attempt. This week they travel 3,000 miles to face Blake Bortles and the uptempo Jags offense. Bortles is a great value QB play this week, and should get you 25 points for his $6,200 salary.
DraftKings Price – $5,900
Bortles is a solid value play, but Cousins may just be the cheapest way to get to 25 points at the QB position this week. Unless the Lions start to get some of their primary defensive players back, and ready to contribute, we expect another shootout in Detroit. Between a lack of a pass rush, and atrocious coverage on the back end, the Lions gave up a near-perfect game to Case Keenum. If Reed is back, the Cousins/Reed stack may be the top value GPP play for week 7.
NFL Week 7 DraftKings RB Picks
DraftKings Price – $7,600
It’s hard to believe McCoy has averaged over 27 PPG on DraftKings over the past four games without topping 19 carries in a game and averaging just 13 receiving yards per game. Translation: we still haven’t seen McCoy’s ceiling in this Bills offense. With Robert Woods and Charles Clay both banged up, Sammy Watkins out, and facing a Dolphins defense that is allowing 147 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL), and 4.5 yards per carry, look for McCoy to get 20 carries for 100+ yards and at least one score this week.
DraftKings Price – $7,200
It doesn’t matter how you run the data, Murray is the top RB play of the week. The Colts come into this matchup giving up 4.8 ypc on the season, and have also been torched for 4 receiving TD’s per game by opposing running backs in six games. The result is a matchup for Murray (22.5 DraftKings PPG) with a defense that is allowing 33 PPG to opposing running backs this season. Given his workload (23 touches per game and targeted on over 50% of total red zone plays), Murray is the closest thing you will ever find to a lock this week.
DraftKings Price – $4,300
If Doug Martin is out this week (Koetter said in his Monday night radio show he expect Martin to be out a while longer), Quizz makes for a solid start against the 49ers. The 49ers aren’t a top 5 RB matchup on their season data, but if you take out the week one shutout of the Rams, they have been the 2nd best RB matchup over the last four weeks, giving up over 38 fantasy PPG. Tampa clearly wants to limit the number of opportunities they give Jameis Winston to make mistakes, which means a heavy dosage of their improved running game.
DraftKings Price – $4,200
The Matt Jones pricing just is off this week. He torches bad run defenses, but Gruden has proven he is more than willing to abandon the run in bad matchups. Detroit is a bad run defense, particularly so with DeAndre Levy and Haloti Ngata out. The Lions are yet to give up a rushing TD to a running back, somewhat skewing their fantasy numbers. However, they come into the week allowing the 6th most YPC, and we expect this to be another volume game, where Jones could vastly outperform his expected production as a receiver.
NFL Week 7 DraftKings WR Picks
DraftKings Price – $9,200
I’m not in love with paying up for Julio at $9,200, his targets are way down this season, and even his 300 yard game came on just 15 targets which was close to his average last year. However, you have to have some exposure to the best GPP receiver in football, in what is, on paper, one of the best WR matchups possible. The Chargers had a shutdown corner in Jason Verrett, but he’s out for the year and in their first game without him, the Chargers gave up 6/138/1 to Amari Cooper and it really could have been much more as he had 3 touchdowns called back in the game. If he can get to double-digit targets, Jones should have a monster week 7.
DraftKings Price – $7,800
The matchup for Jones is great, but if you look at the entire season’s worth of data, nobody gives up more points above expected to opposing number one receivers than the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to opposing number one receivers is a crazy 68.5%… Just how bad is that? The next highest DVOA comes from Detroit at 38%.
DraftKings Price – $3,700
If Steve Smith is out this week, Kamar Aiken will again make a solid value start. With Smith out last week, Aiken put up season highs receptions, targets, and yards, and has an even better matchup in week 7. The Jets secondary has obviously been a disaster this season, but they have been particularly bad against opposing number 2 and 3 receivers (31st in NFL in DVOA vs both). The Jets run defense, however, remains a top five unit and are particularly strong at home. Flacco will have to throw, and Aiken has been proven to produce in this offense, particularly when he’s in the slot.
DraftKings Price – $3,200
As easy as it would be to roll out Allen Robinson and his multi-touchdown, GPP-friendly upside, I think Marqise Lee is the right play this week. As you can see in the two sets of data below, Lee has seen a steady increase in snaps and targets as the season has gone on, and is starting to see an increased role in the red zone. At just $3,200, and facing a defense that leads the NFL in passing YPG allowed, I think Lee’s floor is 3x and if he is able to find the end zone he’s a lock to reach 5x this week.
NFL Week 7 DraftKings TE Picks
DraftKings Price – $6,000
Once again Reed is in injury trouble… However, we will almost certainly know if he will be active by the start of this 1 o’clock game. If he is a full go, you have to get him into your lineups. The Lions defense has allowed 7 tight end touchdowns in 6 games this season, and they have really only faced one really good TE this season. If Reed can’t go, you can easily do a quick replace with Delanie Walker who faces the Colts who are actually 32nd in DVOA vs the tight end position this season.
DraftKings Price – $2,500
The legend of Jack Doyle lives on… It looks like Dwayne Allen will miss at least one week, which should bump Doyle’s snap count close to 100%. Combine that with the fact that Dorsett is also likely out this week, and you could see a heavy dosage of Doyle in week 7. Everybody loves more Doyle.