It has been a wild and entertaining start to the 2018 NFL season, but week 6 is clearly the best week of games we have seen to date. With the Lions and Saints on byes, we have another 12 game main slate on DraftKings this week.
The Thursday night game this week is Eagles/Giants, the Sunday night game is Chiefs/Patriots, and the Monday night game is 49ers/Packers, so players from those six teams will not make our main slate article for this week.
Even with the Chiefs/Patriots game excluded, we have three games with totals over 50 in this slate. Here is a look at the current top implied totals from this main slate.
DraftKings NFL Week 6 Quarterback Targets
DraftKings Price: $6,800
DraftKings is doing a much better job of adjusting player prices for matchups, and Ryan’s price is clearly a reflection of how good this matchup is with the Bucs. Carrying a questionable tag and coming off from a letdown in Pittsburgh, Ryan is the top priced QB in this slate but is still a must-start. The Bucs have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and still don’t stand a chance. Coming off from giving up 46+ points to Trubisky, they travel to Atlanta where they always struggle. This Falcons team is desperate for a win, have Vegas’s highest team total and likely won’t be able to run much on this defense that funnels opponents into throwing on them. Ryan and Julio should both have their biggest games of the year.
DraftKings Price: $5,800
Although he is likely going to be a chalk pick this week, Winston is a safe bet to reach 25 points and at $5,800 I think you have to bank the value at the position this week. Looking at the QB position as a whole in this slate, we really only feel great about Ryan, Watson, and Winston’s chances of reaching 25 points in week 6. There are legit questions about every other QB in this slate. We picked on the Falcons each of the past two weeks, but will repeat it one more time: they are decimated on defense, particularly in the secondary, and are now bottom 10 in DVOA vs all three WR positions. All three Bucs receivers and Cameron Brate are solid plays, but Jameis is the safest bet of the group this week.
DraftKings NFL Week 6 Running Back Targets
DraftKings Price: $8,300
Whether it’s that the Panthers are protecting McCaffrey at the goal line and using Cam as their power back, or that Cam just likes calling his own number in the red zone, the lack of touchdowns with his work rate is alarming. That being said, we are all in on the volume in this matchup this week. Washington was the 29th ranked run defense last season, but their schedule to date has made the run defense look much more improved than it actually is. Their DVOA which is a much better metric for their defense vs the run is 30. McCaffrey will fly under the radar this week, but is our RB2 just slightly behind Gurley.
DraftKings Price: $7,000
I’m of the opinion that a player with Elliott’s workload and ability should never be priced this low and when he is you buy regardless of the matchup. Anybody that has played fantasy for the past two seasons know that you absolutely can’t throw on this Jax defense, but you can find success on the ground. The Jags were 26th in the NFL in YPC last season, and facing them without Fournette means they won’t be able to control time of possession the way they did last season. Zeke is averaging 3x his $7,000 salary on the season, and 4x that price at home this year.
DraftKings Price: $4,400
In his first game back Carson saw 58% of the Seahawks snaps compared to 42% for Mike Davis. We expect that number to skew even more in favor of Carson this week, and it couldn’t come in a better matchup. The Raiders rank 24th in the NFL in DVOA vs the run and 30th in DVOA vs RB’s in the passing game. Carson has been targeted in each of his starts, and does play on third downs, so he should be able to contribute across the board in week 6. Priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings this week, his floor is likely 3x given the number of touches and quality of the matchup.
DraftKings NFL Week 6 Wide Receiver Targets
DraftKings Price: $7,900
We were on Julio last week, and were obviously sick when he had zero catches heading into the fourth quarter in a week where he had Pro Football Focus’s number 1 WR/CB matchup. Everybody in the organization is aware that the best receiver in football is yet to reach the end zone this season, and we are betting this is the week he explodes back to the top of the fantasy WR rankings. The Bucs are 26th vs opposing number one receivers, and had to pull top corner Grimes in his first game back from injury as he was getting shredded vs the Bears. They don’t have the talent or experience to deal with Julio who has shredded them for years. Mike Smith is going to lose his job on Sunday and Julio will play a major role in getting his ex HC fired.
DraftKings Price: $5,300
The Raiders defense is in the bottom 7 in the league in yards per attempt, yards per game, completion percentage, QB rating, and can’t get a pass rush going. This is the only situation in which the Seattle passing game becomes viable, but is a spot we have seen Wilson and Baldwin put up massive numbers in in recent years.
DraftKings Price: $4,600
In no way shape or form are we off the Will Fuller bandwagon, but Coutee is the matchup play here this week. The Bills are top 7 in DVOA vs number one and two receivers, but are in the bottom 5 defending the slot position. The Texans are inventing ways to get Coutee the ball, and was second in targets last week with a 71% snap count. With Fuller fully back, and a red matchup number next to his name, ownership should be way down out Coutee, but he is a solid play for at least one more week here.
DraftKings NFL Week 6 Tight End Targets
DraftKings Price: $3,900
Brate returns to his starting role just in time for the return of Jameis. I know this offense has evolved, but if we get any resemblance Jameis of old, Mike Evans should see 25 targets this week, and Cam Brate should get a 80% target share in the red zone. In a top 2 DVOA vs the pass matchup, and having scored in two straight games, Brate is a top 3 option at the tight end position this week and is a great value priced at just $3,900.
DraftKings Price: $3,000
Another tight end that will see his role increase due to injury, C.J. Uzomah is the last Bengals tight end standing. This is an offense that continues to feature the tight end position, and Uzomah should see a 90%+ snap count once again this week in a matchup against the Steelers who are currently 25th in DVOA vs tight ends. Through five weeks, the Steelers are giving up 83 YPG to opposing tight ends and were shredded by Austin Hooper last week.