With NFL week 5 officially in the books, we turn our attention to the 12 game week 6 main slate on DraftKings. The Bucs and Bears are on byes this week so we won’t be all in on Trubisky again this week.
For those of you that missed our week 4 picks, we gave out Luck, Dalton, Trubisky, Elliott, Gio, Shepard, T.Y., Ebron, Hilton, Robinson, Gabriel… It was a big payout on a week where chalk hit, meaning high money lines.
Speaking of high money lines, here is a look at the winning Millionaire Maker lineup from week 4. Before we jump into this week’s picks let’s take a look at what user nickelback4lyfe did to win $1 million this Sunday. We have already covered most of these picks as they made our week 4 articles.
One of the more controversial picks in this lineup was Golden Tate who was neither cheap nor a popular pick this week. We have seen experts saying there was no way he should have been owned, but he was in some of my lineups and here is why: first off, the questionable tag is meaningless when it comes to Tate. He has historically played through questionable nearly 100% of the time. The other reason Tate was a good own this week was his individual matchup. He is almost exclusively lining up in the slot this season, the Cowboys slot corner, Anthony Brown, is one of PFF’s lowest graded corners this season. In fact, this matchup was one of their 10 best matchups for week four.
Back to this week’s slate, here is a look at the top implied team total’s from the week 5 Vegas lines:
DraftKings Price – $6,700
Through four games the Raiders are a bottom 5 pass defense despite facing Mayfield in his first career start, Ryan Tannehill, and Case Keenum. They have no chance of slowing down Phillip Rivers and his 110+ QB rating on Sunday. In his last matchup with the Raiders Rivers threw for 387 yards and 3 touchdowns. We fully expect a repeat performance this week in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the week.
DraftKings Price – $5,200
We are all in on this matchup. Neither defense has been able to stop anyone this season, and both passing attacks have been unbelievable. Carr is averaging 343 passing YPG and the Chargers are giving up 276 YPG, including a healthy 8.3 YPA. I don’t think there is any chance the Raiders defense can slow down Rivers, which means this could be another crazy volume game for Carr and he should have matchups that he can exploit given LA’s lack of depth at corner and lack of a pass rush without Bosa.
DraftKings NFL Week 5 Running Back Picks
DraftKings Price – $7,500
Coming off from a 28 carry game, we expect to see McCaffrey as the highest owned RB in this price range, but will roll with Conner in a dream matchup. The Falcons are not only giving up over 5 YPC on the season, but are also giving up 12/78 to opposing RB’s through the air. The Steelers offense always plays better at home, which is reflected in Conner’s 26/14 home/away split this season. He should be a lock to reach 3x, and has legit 5x upside given the matchup.
DraftKings Price – $5,600
With Fournette out again this week, Yeldon finds himself in line for a ton of volume in the number one fantasy RB matchup. Given Bortles’ volatility on the road, we expect the Jags to lean heavily on the run game in an effort to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field. Kansas City’s defense was absolutely shredded by the Broncos last week, and are giving up an NFL-worst 5.7 YPC on the season.
DraftKings Price – $4,700
We hate trying to predict big games for guys like Allen, Thompson, Johnson, Riddick, etc… That being said, Allen’s workload has increased nearly every week, and Alex Collins can’t stop fumbling. This is a matchup that the Ravens have to be able to exploit. The Browns have been decent in coverage on the outside, but have been shredded by opposing running backs this season. At $4,700, Allen is nearly averaging 3x value and has reached that number in 3 of 4 starts.
DraftKings Price – $4,700
Drake is our absolute favorite sleeper pick of the week. After saying he was getting 25+ touches per game throughout camp, Gase completely ignored Drake in a game where Tannehill was putrid and the offense was skunked against what has been a bad Patriots defense all season. After the game Gase admitted he needs to get Drake the ball more often, and we expect that to happen this week. The Bengals defense has been bad all season, and have been the 4th best pass catching RB matchup in the league this season. A week after getting just 4 touches and scoring just 2 fantasy points, this pick is as risky as it gets.
DraftKings NFL Week 5 Wide Receiver Picks
DraftKings Price – $8,500
With all the hype surrounding Ridley and his start to the season it seems that fantasy owners missed the fact that Julio is once again leading the league in receiving. It’s one thing for Ridley to have big games at home against Cinci and New Orleans, but to do it at Heinz field? We are betting Julio gets a ton of targets in what has to be a must-win game for the 1-3 Falcons. Julio gets PFF’s #1 WR/CB matchup of the week, facing off with Coty Sensabaugh who is giving up 2.7 yards per route covered.
DraftKings Price – $7,800
Given the ridiculous pace he ended last season on, Keenan Allen has had a relatively quiet start to his 2018 season. Clearly this is a breakout spot for Allen. Of all the Chargers receivers, Allen has the best matchup as he will line up against Leon Hall in the slot, who is second to last in production allowed to opposing slot receivers this season.
DraftKings Price – $5,500
Getting Cooper in the slot was one of the primary reasons Oakland brought in both Nelson and Bryant this season. His skill set is a perfect fit for the slot, and he instantly becomes a nightmare matchup for teams that don’t have that solid nickel corner. With this in mind, he will likely avoid Casey Hayward this week in 3 receiver sets… a formation the Raiders may find themselves running a ton of if the Chargers can jump out to an early lead.
DraftKings Price – $5,300
It’s officially slot week! Looking at the SCB’s we are targeting, Agholor’s matchup may actually be the pick of the litter. Mike Hughes’s struggles have been well documented this season. He is giving up a completion percentage of 71%, a ridiculous 2.32 yards per route covered, and has a PFF grade of 57.9. With Rhodes likely to shadow Jeffery, this is clearly the matchup for Philly to target on Sunday.
DraftKings NFL Week 5 Tight End Picks
DraftKings Price – $4,700
We have been saying it for two years: the Lions are a plug and play tight end defense. Geoff Swaim scored 12.7 points against them last week! Graham isn’t a player that I love, especially not in this Packers system that hasn’t featured the tight end since Jermichael Finley was around. That being said, the Lions are not already horrible vs opposing tight ends, but they will be without the only player they have rostered in over three seasons that could actually cover the position, Quandre Diggs. Slay and Lawson are tough on the outside, thus the #32 WR matchup rating, so look for Rodgers and McCarthy to exploit the Graham matchup early and often this week.
DraftKings Price – $2,900
RSJ is our sleeper pick of the week. The schedule has been brutal on him, and his inconsistent production is likely primarily due to the matchups. That being said, he started the season with volume but no yards, now he’s averaged over 30 YPC over the past two, but isn’t getting the volume. In week 5 he faces a 49ers defense that is has a DVOA of 38% vs opposing TE, making them one of the top matchups for the position. This will be the week that he is able to exploit a mismatch and turn in a 5x+ fantasy game.