DraftKings NFL Week 4 Lineup Strategy, Picks, and Bargains

DraftKings NFL Week 4 Lineup Strategy, Picks, and Bargains

We warned our readers and listeners about week three… when you have a slate with that much chalk things tend to get weird. I don’t know how you could talk yourself out of Latavius Murray in that spot. He was likely to get 80%+ snap count in a game where his team were 17 point favorites against arguably the friendliest RB matchup in fantasy football. Then his team was down 24 in under 10 minutes. Chaos.

While we expected scores to be sky high for week three, the winning Millionaire Maker lineup ended up just 15 points higher than the week 2 winner.

draftkings week three winning lineup

While the potential for high scoring matchups like we saw in the Kansas City/San Fran, New Orleans/Atlanta, and Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay games from last week isn’t quite there this week, there are several undervalued players getting their best matchup of the season which should create plenty of upside in week 4. Here are the implied totals from the Vegas lines for this week:

Kansas City31
LA Chargers29
LA Rams28
Green Bay28
New England27
New Orleans27

Quarterback Targets

Drew Luck

DraftKings Price: $5,500

Following back-to-back sub-par performances, and getting benched for the final hail mary in week three, the fantasy community is down on Luck right now. His price is way down to $5,500 and his ownership should be way down as well. That being said, it’s important to remember he had two really tough matchups in week 2 and 3. Washington is the number 2 pass defense in the NFL, and while Philly is no slouch, that game was also played in poor weather. Up next for Luck is our favorite defense to target vs the pass in Houston. The Texans are allowing the 2nd highest opponent passer rating and are in the bottom 5 in completion percentage and yards per attempt. Certainly the letter home this week will be much more positive.

Drew Dalton

DraftKings Price: $5,400

After watching this Bengals offense work this preseason, we wrote that they finally seem to be clicking on all cylinders under Bill Lazor. Even after throwing 4 picks last week, Dalton has a 37 to 13 TD/INT ration since Lazor took over. This week the Bengals face an Atlanta defense that is riddled with injuries with both safeties out, as well linebacker Deion Jones. Despite the dud that Nick Foles put up in week one, Atlanta is allowing the fourth most fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s this season, and you can expect that number to just get worse as they work through these injuries.

Running Back Targets

Ezekiel Elliott

DraftKings Price: $7,000

Despite only allowing 89 rushing yards to the Patriots last week, the Detroit Lions rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and per carry. Zeke comes in averaging nearly 6 YPC and 19 fantasy PPG despite having just 37 receiving yards on the season. This will be his first 30 point performance of the season.

Tevin Coleman

DraftKings Price: $5,900

The fact that Tevin Coleman did not have a big week three performance with Freeman out simply means he is due this week. Should Freeman miss again, I think Coleman could have a 100+ yard game, and push 4x value in week four. The Bengals come into week four allowing the fourth most rushing YPG while giving up a healthy 4.4 YPC which is on par with the 4.2 YPC they gave up last season.

Carlos Hyde

DraftKings Price: $5,500

We expected Carlos Hyde to find plenty of success playing under Todd Haley and will continue to look at him in favorable matchups. While we aren’t completely sold on Mayfield, the offense should open up more with him at the helm as he’s much more likely to push the ball down field than Tyrod Taylor. The Dolphins inexplicably decided to completely abandon the run against the Raiders last week, but even with that 41 yard showing last week the Raiders defense is still allowing 116 YPG and 5.1 YPC on the season. This is an ideal spot for Hyde, who has multi-touchdown upside if the Browns are able to keep this game close in Oakland.

Wide Receiver Targets

T.Y. Hilton

DraftKings Price: $7,000

If Luck is due, you know T.Y. is due. While the target share and production have been solid, the lack of a truly favorable matchup has capped his upside at 21 points. While Houston’s secondary has been bad in general, they have been especially vulnerable to top end #1 receivers, which is exactly what Hilton is. Hilton exploited this matchup for 5/175/2 last November.

Allen Robinson

DraftKings Price: $5,900

Robinson converting double digit targets into just 3/50 last week will turn off plenty in the DFS community, but keep in mind that was against Patrick Peterson. This week he will face a Bucs secondary that is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They have injuries everywhere, don’t get a ton of help from the D-line, and enter this week dead last in passing yards allowed and opponent completion percentage. There is no chance the Bucs will be able to run against this Bears defense, meaning there will be plenty of volume for this Bears passing game. At $5,900, Robinson has a 6x ceiling in this matchup.

Sterling Shepard

DraftKings Price: $4,900

The Giants receivers square off with a Saints secondary that is in the bottom 3 vs receivers lined up in every position. They are giving up an unbelievable 63.3 DraftKings PPG to opposing receivers on the season. While I obviously like Beckham here as well, I think you could potentially match his production with Shepard at nearly $4,000 cheaper. The Giants only need to watch last week’s Atlanta film to see how to exploit this secondary with a number 2 receiver.

Tight End Targets

Travis Kelce

DraftKings Price: $6,800

The Broncos secondary is weaker in general this season, but have always been susceptible vs tight ends. This is a matchup that Kelce has feasted in over the past two seasons, and it we expect him to be just as busy in week four. In what should be Mahomes toughest test to date, we expect to see Reid lean heavily on both Kelce and Hunt to keep Mahomes as far away from Von Miller as possible.

Eric Ebron

DraftKings Price: $3,600
Ebron’s target share in week three (11) was actually good for 3rd highest of the week. Look for the volume to remain for as long as the Colts are without Doyle. The production should be up considerably in a matchup with a Houston defense that ranks 30th in DVOA vs opposing tight ends.

There is no shortage of options at tight end this week including Cook, Burton, and Eifert. All of which have favorable matchups and are set up nicely to hit value in week four.

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