DraftKings NFL Week 3 Picks and Lineup Strategy – 9/24/2017 Slate

We identify the locks of the week, our favorite bargain players, and what our lineup strategy will be heading into the week 3 DraftKings contests.

With two weeks in the books, we are starting to get an idea of what each NFL team is and can now lock in our projections and accurately project value each week. DraftKings has another loaded slate of contests for week three, including a six tournaments with prize totals over $500,000.

Below are our favorite plays for this week 3 slate. Many of these guys were also featured in our FanDuel week 3 article, but have matchups too good to not make both articles.

Week 3 DraftKings QB Picks

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
Cam NewtonNew Orleans$6,6003.60
Matthew StaffordAtlanta$6,2003.19
Kirk CousinsOakland$6,1003.27
Deshone KizerIndianapolis$5,0003.92

Also worth a look: Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Mike Glennon

Cam Newton is clearly the chalk QB play for week three. He faces a Saints defense that has allowed opposing QB’s to rack up a near perfect QB rating against them through the first two weeks. Over that stretch the Saints have given up nearly 400 passing YPG and a 6/0 TD/INT ratio, good for 30 DraftKings PPG.

Stafford faces the Falcons at home in what promises to be an uptempo, high scoring affair. The Lions offense is always great at home, and faces a Falcons secondary that is improved but still allows 19 DraftKings PPG to opposing QB’s. The Lions have too many options, and will be able to exploit what holes the Atlanta defense has… more on that later.

We are all in on the Washington passing attack this week. Kirk Cousins and this passing attack has been too good over the past few seasons for them to continue this slow start. Look for the Redskins to move back to their mean with a monster performance at home, against a Raiders defense that allowed Mariota and Josh McCown to put up just under 40 points in the first two weeks of the 2017 season.

Deshone Kizer is our bargain lock of the week. Our fairly modest projections have him as a nearly 4x value heading into this week’s slate. I think you get at least 3 points out of him as a runner every week, with the occasional rushing touchdown. Coming off games against the Steelers and Ravens secondaries, Kizer is already averaging over 2.5x his current salary, look for 4x value out of the rookie this week.

Week 3 DraftKings RB Picks

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
Le’Veon BellNew Orleans$8,8002.85
Jay AjayiNY Jets$7,7002.95
Ty MontgomeryCincinnati$6,9002.71
Isaiah CrowellIndianapolis$4,8003.21

A 40 point game is coming from Bell, it’s just a matter of time. I’m not sure this is the week, as the Bears haven’t been terrible against the run this season, giving up just 22 DraftKings PPG to opposing RB’s. That being said, I’ll have some share of him every week until we see that 40 point breakout game that he’s had every season. The key is his role in the passing game, last season Bell averaged over 6 catches per game, if he gets back to that this week he should be in line for a huge game.

The Jets are pushing the Saints for the best fantasy matchup in the NFL this season. They are bottom 5 against the pass and run, and aren’t built to handle 25 bruising carries out of Ajayi. If Ajayi does get to 25 touches this week, it should put him in the 30 point range or nearly 4x value.

Ty Montgomery is the safest play on DraftKings this week. Given the health issues surrounding the Packers receivers, and the fact that the Bengals have shut down opposing receivers this season, we are betting Montgomery is extremely busy in the passing game. Additionally, he faces a Bengals defense that is currently allowing over 125 rushing yards per game to opposing RB’s.

Similar to Kizer, we expect Crowell to go crazy against the Colts this week. Back to back games against the Ravens and Steelers have the Browns offensive line battle tested and ready to move bodies against one of the weaker defenses in the NFL.

Also worth a look: Kareem Hunt, Ameer Abdullah, Christian McCaffrey

Week 3 DraftKings WR Picks

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
A.J. GreenGreen Bay$8,1002.59
Keenan AllenKansas City$7,2002.81
Golden TateAtlanta$6,9002.49
Terrelle PryorOakland$5,9002.8
Jamison CrowderOakland$4,9002.62

Also worth a look: DeVonte Parker, Martavis Bryant, Devin Funchess, Markus Wheaton

A.J. Green was our feature receiver in the FanDuel slate as well, and we will have a large share of the Bengals pass catcher in what is his first plus matchup of the season. The Packers have really struggled to contain opposing number one receivers over the past two seasons, and Green is arguably the most talented receiver in the NFL when healthy. Look for Bill Lazor to make a statement early, getting Green and likely Mixon involved early and often. These guys are too talented to not put the ball in the end zone.

Keenan Allen will be a PPR monster all season. He has been a top 10 receiver in nearly every healthy season he has had with Philip Rivers. The Chiefs have given up over 40 PPG to opposing receivers through the first two weeks, and Allen is arguably the best receiver they have seen.

With Alford and Trufant on the outside, the key to beating the Falcons has been picking on just about anyone else. Atlanta has a solid set of corners, but is in the bottom third in pass defense vs receivers, tight ends, and running backs. Look for Detroit to use Tate in the slot, Ebron, and Abdullah/Riddick to move the ball all over the Falcons this week.

We like both Pryor and Crowder this week, particularly if Reed is out and or limited. The Raiders continue to have legitimate secondary issues, and have allowed 34 DraftKings PPG to opposing receivers, despite facing the Jets and Titans. There is a good chance a Cousins/Pryor/Crowder stack wins the big GPP’s this week.

Week 3 DraftKings TE Picks

PlayerOpponentDraftKings PriceProj. Value
Jack DoyleCleveland$3,6003.05
Eric EbronAtlanta$3,3003.28

Also worth a look: Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, Julius Thomas

We are going value at tight end this week on DraftKings, and think that either Ebron or Doyle will be the top bargain play of the week for this slate. Both guys have great matchups, and play a growing role in their team’s offense.

The Browns are giving up over 25 PPG to opposing tight ends, and Jack Doyle is clearly the Colts most efficient weapon at this point in the season. He has displayed good chemistry with Brissett, and Rob Chudzinski clearly has a better rhythm play calling for Doyle than any of the receivers in Indy.

After missing nearly the entire summer with injuries, Ebron is finally healthy and has historically been a top 8 tight end in the NFL when he’s off the injury report. Keep targeting him as long as he is healthy and way underpriced on DraftKings. The Falcons come into week 3 giving up 15 PPG to opposing tight ends despite not giving up a TD to one yet this season.

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Written by Chris Lollis

Chris is the lead researcher and writer for The Daily Audible. He has a decade of experience in sports gambling, handicapping, daily fantasy sports, scouting, and analysis.

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