Week Two QB Picks
We all saw the Bucs offense struggle throughout the preseason, but we are betting that Winston and Koetter figure it out with two weeks to prepare for the Bears. Chicago’s secondary was in the bottom 10 in the NFL last season in QB rating, completion %, and TD/INT ratio.
Smith will likely be right there with Brady as a fairly chalk QB play this week given his week one performance, and matchup with an Eagles defense that has PFF’s 32nd ranked secondary. We always like targeting out of conference/division games, and Alex Smith was particularly good against the NFC last season with a QBR 13 points higher than in AFC games.
Week Two RB Picks
In a game that was surprisingly a fantasy dud, TY Montgomery more than caught our eye by racking up 23 touches against a tough Seahawks team. He was the most efficient Packers pass catcher, and scored a 6 yard rushing touchdown… a good sign that he will in fact be the team’s 3 down and goal line back this season.
Quizz averaged 15 DK PPR as a starter last season, so at just $4,400 with really no competition for early down work, he’s an easy target this week. We have him as having a 2x floor and 5x ceiling if he is able to vulture a touchdown away from the Bucs passing game. While he ran for 100+ yards in two of five games as a starter, his value may be tied to how big of a role he can carve out in what should be a lethal Bucs aerial attack.
We gave Kerwynn Williams as a target in our FanDuel week 2 article, but I’m leaning more towards Andre Ellington in DK’s full PPR format. Ellington was arguably the Cardinals’ most efficient weapon in a week one matchup that saw Palmer struggle to get the ball anywhere near his receivers down field. Additionally, it’s Ellington that could see an even bigger role given the absence of John Brown.
This was a tough call to make, as this feels like a game in which we would see Blount rack up 25+ carries, which would be Gillislee’s role on this year’s Pats roster. That being said, White outsnapped Gillislee at nearly a 2-to-1 rate, and Gillislee wasn’t targeted once in the passing game, while White racked up 3/30 on 5 targets. Part of that may have to do with the fact that the Pats were trailing by a considerable amount down the stretch, but we are willing to chase the snaps and role in the passing game in what should be a favorable matchup for the entire Pats offense.
Week Two WR Picks
Atlanta squeezed out a win against the Bears in week one, but will need to play a lot better to beat another NFC North opponent in the Packers. This game projects to be the highest scoring of the weekend, and we particularly like the matchup for Julio Jones. Jones faces a Packers defense that was 28th in the NFL in DVOA vs opposing #1 receivers. Keeping with the theme from last season, the Packers completely shut down the run last week and should be able to somewhat keep the Falcons one dimensional which should mean a ton of targets for Julio.
Cooks make our FanDuel picks as well this week, and whether Brady and Belichick trust him or not, he’s going to need to step up in the short passing game. We thought he was going to at least somewhat be that guy last week, but they trusted the fragile Amendola and broke him. If Amendola is officially out, Cooks should see at least an additional 3-4 targets in a matchup that is about as good as it gets.
Chicago flat out doesn’t have the back end talent to deal with Mike Evans, and the beauty behind bringing in DeSean Jackson is that there is nothing they can do about it. The last thing any team will want to do is roll coverage over top of Evans and leave a DB on an island with DJack. Evans should see his usual 10 targets and exploit the Bears secondary in what will be an emotional post-Irma home opener for the Bucs.
The biggest beneficiary from Brown being out is clearly J.J. Nelson. He should see 100% of the Cardinals down-field targets against the NFL’s worst defense. The Colts are coming off of a week one that saw them give up nearly 50 points to the LA Rams, and it isn’t getting better anytime soon. Nelson put up 5/43/1 and dropped another would be 50+ yard TD in a game that Palmer was completely off and erratic.
Marqise Lee is another bargain receiver that will benefit tremendously by an injury above him on the depth chart. Allen Robinson going down gives Lee a chance to see a ton of snaps and targets against a Tennessee defense that is going to be missing half of their starting secondary.
Week Two TE Picks
We all know a Gronk game is coming soon, it’s just a matter of time, and a matchup with the Saints may be just what the Pats need to get him going. The Saints were better than you’d think against opposing tight ends last season, but did give up 12 points to Kyle Rodolph in week one on just three targets.
Fleener is obviously the chalk TE play on DraftKings this week. He’s under priced, will play a huge role in this season’s Saints offense, and has a phenomenal matchup against a New England defense whose weakness is clearly it’s linebacker and safeties. Fleener had a great offseason and camp, and it paid off with a big 16 point week one performance against a tough Vikings defense.