A fairly sleepy start to this slate is irrelevant when the night culminates with Oklahoma City at Golden State at 10:30 EST… a game with plenty of story lines, loads of superstars, and a 230 point Vegas total.
That being said, we have zero players from that game in our picks for tonight. I guess we are putting up a number and letting everyone chase it.
Before we jump into our picks, here is a peak at the early Vegas lines for tonight. Keep in mind we still don’t have lines for the Raptors, Knicks, and Lakers games.
|Golden State||Oklahoma City||120|
|Oklahoma City||Golden State||110|
DraftKings Price – $6,700
Just start the point guard for Cleveland’s opponent every night and move on to the next position. They weren’t great before he returned, but since Isaiah Thomas moved into the rotation the Cavs have given up over 10% more production to opposing PG’s than the next worst team. Payton put up over 5x on him just a couple weeks ago.
DraftKings Price – $4,200
Ulis should see an insane amount of usage tonight as the rest of the Suns backcourt wouldn’t make most G League rosters. Ulis seems to play better when he gets more minutes, it’s the games were he sees 10-15 minutes off the bench that he really struggles. He seems to always hit value in games where he plays 20+ minutes.
DraftKings Price – $4,700
I don’t expect Hart to lose his minutes, and wouldn’t expect any sort of dip in production. He is coming of back-to-back 35+ minute nights that saw him put up 8x+ value in each contest. Clearly he is one of the value locks of the night in a home matchup with the aforementioned Suns backcourt.
DraftKings Price – $4,500
Hezonja will start again in place of the injured Aaron Gordon tonight, and will see a bump in usage in a favorable matchup. In his last four starts without Gordon, his value has gone 6x, 6x, 6x, 8x. He should avoid any tough matchups with Payton drawing Thomas and Simmons drawing Lebron duty, leaving him to produce against the struggling supporting cast in Cleveland.
DraftKings Price – $11,000
I love the value at PG/SG tonight, which made the Giannis vs Harden decision easier than it should have been, assuming he is a full go with the tweaked ankle. That being said, Harden did hit triple digits a few nights ago, and usually plays well after an off night (went 1-11 from 3 vs Cavs). Giannis is slightly more consistent than Harden, has reached value for his $11,000 in 6 of his last 8, and draws a favorable matchup with New York who really has nobody that matches up favorable with the Greek Freak. Who does?
DraftKings Price – $7,100
I wasn’t sure what to expect from Porter without Wall. On one hand, Wall creates a lot of open looks for Porter, on the other hand he will clearly see a sizable bump in usage. Through the first five game w/o Wall,
Porter has hit 5x three times and 6x twice. Philly has given up the fifth most DraftKings PPG to opposing SF’s over the past month, so the matchup is certainly favorable. There is some risk here as he may guard Simmons and was very quiet in the first two meetings with the 76ers.
DraftKings Price – $4,900
It’s scary to think about what Green could do if he ever saw 35 mpg. He’s currently averaging 23 DraftKings PPG on just 26 mpg. The Hawks frontcourt is offensively gifted, but are an absolute disaster on defense. The combination of Dedmon/Collins/Ilyasova/Muscala is giving up 49 DraftKings PPG to PF’s and 59 PPG to Centers. Green, Martin, Gasol, Rabb… start ’em all.
DraftKings Price – $4,400
Big Mo is going to need to produce in an increased workload tonight, or the Magic are going to be in a ton of trouble. They can’t expect offensive production out of Biyombo or Birch, and have nobody else in the frontcourt. He is a streaky player that has shot the ball well over the past two weeks, a stretch that has seen him go for 5x+ in 3 of 4 games.