DraftKings Targets for Tuesday Night Game Two’s
My two week vacation has left me with a lot of questions about whether or not I play through the NBA Playoffs, the answer is yes… just not as much. I adjust my strategy for the 2-4 game nights to where I’m only playing in single entry tournaments, head-to-head’s, 50/50’s and some smaller tournaments where I can verify that nobody is entering 10 lineups into a contest on a night with only 3 games. Entering bigger tournaments with 90,000 entries and only 70 players to build your roster from eliminates any skill that is required to win on DraftKings, and turns fantasy sports in legit gambling.
That being said, here is one of the lineups that I’m using in a lot of H2H’s tonight:
DraftKings Point Guard
Evan Turner – I say it every time I give him out as a target, I don’t like it and it’s gross… However the numbers just don’t lie. He’s averagin 30 DraftKings PPG against the Cavs this season, and he and Avery Bradley are still the only players playing 30+ minutes in the Celtics backcourt. Keep this number in the back of your head, the point-above-replacement comparison over the last 10 games for Wall and Turner is 38 to 32…
DraftKings Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal – The reason I’m going Beal over Harden here is a simple value/points above replacement analysis. Harden just hasn’t been the 50 DraftKings PPG beast against the Mavs, he’s been a 40-45 point beast with a ceiling of around 50. So for the added $4,000 salary your only getting 5-10 more points over Beal’s 10 game average. I can’t make a similar argument for Lebron James and any other small forward tonight…
DraftKings Small Forward
Lebron James – Lebron’s PAR number is 22… He’s averaged 22 more DraftKings PPG over his last 10 games than the next best Small Forward (Josh Smith). Throw value out the window and lock that number in at SF and give yourself a 20 point advantage at the position tonight.
DraftKings Power Forward
Terrence Jones – Dirk is a good matchup for Jones… as long as you stay down he isn’t going to draw fouls (he attempted 193 free throws this season, lowest since his rookie year)and Jones should be able to rebound and block a couple shots against the aging German. You are only paying $5,800 for him, so he doesn’t even need to hit 30 to reach value on DraftKings.
Dwight Howard – Chandler is a solid defensive Center, but this is actually one of Dwight’s favorite matchups. He averaged over 40 DraftKings ppg on the Mavericks last season, and if he could have stayed out of foul trouble, would have pushed that number in game one. He should be able to get to 30 minutes tonight and at least reach his 5x value number of 35. His splits vs the Mavericks over the last two seasons are below.
DraftKings Guard and Utility
Jason Terry – I was torn between Terry and Shumpert in this spot, but I’m not convinced that Shumpert won’t have a game where he loses 15 minutes of playing time because J.R. gets hot. Terry is going to play 25-30 minutes every night, and has been 4x+ in 6 of his last 8 games. He had a solid game one and, given the matchup and playing time, he remains a safe play for game two.
Timofey Mozgov – I am all in on Timofey tonight. At $5,000, his value doesn’t look super, but we know he has a high ceiling and that the Celtics have a weak frontcourt. The Cavs best frontcourt combination in game one was by far Love and Mozgov. I expect the Russian bear to play more minutes and be more effective in the minutes… look for him to go for 30 DraftKings points in 30 minutes tonight.
Betting the Lines…
I wanted to share my thoughts on tonight’s lines. I always like to bet home teams hard in game one, then swing it and lean road teams in game two. Looking at last night’s games, the Pelicans covered, but the Bucks missed by a point. Lower seeds are going to win road games in the NBA playoffs, in last year’s first round every team except Charlotte and Chicago won on the road. To me this signals a lot of game 2 covers and a few wins for road teams.
All that being said, with the round one win by Washington I am betting Toronto hard tonight. In their last 10 meetings, Toronto is 7-3 against the Wizards and covered the spread in 5 of the 7 wins. The Air Canada Center is going to be raucous, and the Raptors have their back against the wall in a must-win game.
Cleveland wins again tonight, but the margin comes down to 7-9 points and the Celtics cover the +11. I think that game is a no-brainer tease for the Celtics, the haven’t lost by 15 points in 1.5 months and I’m willing to bet Stevens will have them ready to fight tonight.
For me, the toughest game to call was the Dallas/Houston matchup. Despite Houston’s 7-3 record over their last 10 meetings, Dallas has covered in 6 of the last 10 games. I’m sticking with my mindset that you bet home teams in game one and take the points with road teams in game two.