DraftKings College Football Week 7 Early Game Picks
Saturday is shaping up to be the most intriguing day of college football through the first two weeks of the season. Just looking at the early set from DraftKings, you have games with huge national implications like Alabama/Texas A&M and Michigan/Michigan State.
There are games that should be ridiculously high scoring like Baylor/WVU, Washington State/Oregon State, Texas Tech/Kansas and Tulsa/East Carolina. Then there are games like Memphis/Ole Miss, where if Memphis pulls off a victory, Justin Fuente can move from the favorite to coach East USC to West USC.
Let’s start by taking a look at the full slate of games, and then at which teams have the highest total in the current Vegas lines.
|Mississippi State||La Tech||36|
|Washington State||Oregon State||33|
Week 7 CFB Quarterback Picks
DraftKings Salary – $9,000
There is no way that any college player should cost more than Seth Russell in daily fantasy. He is the second highest scoring quarterback in this week’s slate and he is yet to play a full game. West Virginia currently has the 21st ranked pass defense, but that number is overinflated thanks to the joke of a schedule they have played. In their first two competitive games of the season, the Mountaineers gave up 77 points. If Russell plays even 3/4 of the game he will rack up 350 passing yards, with 4 passing touchdowns and 50 rushing yards with another score.
DraftKings Salary – $7,400
Vegas has the total on the Ole Miss/Memphis game at 64.5, so you know points are going to be scored here. Clearly the biggest mismatch is going to be Kelly and his receivers against the Memphis secondary which is currently the worst pass defense in the nation in terms of yardage. A Kelly/Treadwell stack seems like it has a ton of upside and will only cost you $13,100 over $4,000 less than Russell/Coleman or Johnson/Lewis.
DraftKings Salary – $6,800
While all eyes will be on Matt Johnson and that explosive Bowling Green offense, the real value may be in his opponent Thomas Woodson. Woodson has been in the 4x-6x range in 3 of his 4 starts, and averaged 11 DraftKings PPG as a runner over that stretch. If Akron is going to keep this game within two touchdowns (Vegas has the spread at 11 points), Woodson will have to put up 400+ yards and touchdowns on the ground and in the air. Bowling Green’s secondary is yet to slow down an opponent and gave up 486 yards passing and 4 touchdowns to UMass last week.
Week 7 CFB Running Back Picks
DraftKings Salary – $4,900
With Corey Clement already out, and now Taiwan Deal likely out, Ogunbowale could find himself in the fortunate position of carrying the load for a Wisconsin team projected to score 34 points this week. If this is the case, he should be a safe play in the majority of your lineups as he is an every down back that is generally very active in the Badgers passing game. Matchup isn’t that important because he is a Wisconsin running back, but for what it is worth Purdue has the 109th ranked run defense, allowing 226.2 rushing YPG.
DraftKings Salary – $5,300
DeAndre Washington is averaging 4x value this season, and certainly hasn’t seen this favorable of a matchup. The Jayhawks are allowing the fourth most rushing yards per game at 279.2 and 8th most yards per attempt at over 5.8. Washington is obviously another back that catches a ton of passes, and is averaging 4 rec/game over the last four weeks.
DraftKings Salary – $3,100
As good as the matchup is for the Texas Tech running game, it’s just as good for Kansas. TT gives up even more ypc at 5.9, and is allowing only 2 fewer rushing yards per game. Cox is officially back and immediately went to the top of the Kansas depth chart. As bad as the Jayhawks have been, their running game has had a few solid games. At just $3,100 I think you have to take a shot at a starting running back in one of the better matchups on the board.
DraftKings Salary – $4,400
ECU’s defense has been terrible at defending the run and pass and Tulsa leads the country in plays per game… Translation is a ton of yardage for the Golden Hurricanes. Philip Montgomery desperately wants Brewer to take and keep the RB job from Langer and I think he did it last week. While Langer continues to struggle to average over 3 YPC, Brewer is averaging just under 6 on the season and adds another dimension as a pass catcher. This play is obviously a huge risk, but I think Brewer may be the back to own for Tulsa this week.
Week 7 CFB Wide Receiver Picks
DraftKings Salary – $7,000-$8,400
All three guys have great matchups and have been beasts all season long. You shouldn’t be overexposed to one of them, but should have all three sprinkled throughout your lineups this week. If I was to rank them based on value, I would go Coleman, Carroo, then Lewis… with Coleman also being the safest play of the three. Carroo has caught 14/17 targets with 6 touchdowns, so there isn’t enough volume to say he’s a lock, but it’s hard to ignore 90 points in three games this season and Indiana’s secondary is totally without talent.
DraftKings Salary – $5,000
Remember when we gave you guys a $3,000 5’2″ receiver on a bad offense in week one… Well look at our boy now. With 49 targets in 5 games, Sherfield is clearly Vandy’s go-to receiver. A McCrary/Sherfield stack will cost you under $11,000 and produce 5x value.
DraftKings Salary – $5,700
Treadwell’s target rate has been right at 30% all season, but his catch rate has jumped over the past few weeks, and the result could spell doom for Memphis’ dead-last nationally ranked pass defense.
DraftKings Salary – $4,600
With 60 targets in 6 games, the numbers for Isaiah Jones are flashy, but it’s Trevon Brown that really jumps out at you when you watch ECU play. He’s clearly their best big play threat, and only receiver averaging over 15 yards per game, and James Summers seems to look for Brown much more when he plays so Brown is less effected by Summers playing over Kemp.
There are several put options at receiver that I like this week, so I’m going to give them to you rapid fire style, with just a quick note…
Jerome Lane – $4,300 – Lane leads the nation in yards per catch, and is a clear threat to score at least one long touchdown against a weak defense, in what should be a really high scoring game.
Fred Ross – $4,100 – Bear Wilson will give La Tech all they can handle on the outside, and Fred Ross should find plenty of opportunities over the middle of the field. Ross is averaging well over 3x value despite scoring his first touchdown of the season last week. He’s a solid PPR guy that should have a chance to score again this week.
KJ Maye – $3,400 – Maye has been frustrating to watch this season… After jumping out of the gates with over 17 points in each of the first two weeks, he’s been quiet ever since. Still being targeted on just under 25% of Minnesota’s passes, he is in line for another strong game against the Big 10’s worst pass defense.
Tony Fumagalli – $3,400 – The Badgers are facing Purdue, have no interest in throwing to their receivers in the red zone, and in his first start of the season Fumagalli put up 6/65/1.
Steven Sims – $3,000 – Again, Texas Tech has not shut down a single opponent yet this season, so Kansas should get some yardage here. If Tre’ Parmalee plays we will likely target him, otherwise true Freshman Steven Sims Jr, who currently leads the Jayhawks in targets, should see a bunch of chances with what should be improved QB play coming from Ryan Willis.