DraftKings Strategy for Week 4 CFL Contests
With the amount of time we spent on The Open this week, our CFL picks for week 4 are coming out later than we’d like.
Week 3 was again a solid week with our lineups doubling up the total entry fees. That number would have been much higher, but we left Kienan Lafrance in our lineups despite learning he wasn’t getting the start for Ottawa. The RedBlacks instead start Nic Grigsby, but we left Lafrance in as he was in our original article and we didn’t have time prior to Thursday kickoffs to write an update. Had we made the swap , most of our lineups would have finished in the top 10 and we would have earned closer to the 10x we won in week one of the CFL season.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling this week. Vegas has Edmonton with the highest projected team total at 29, Saskatchewan, Toronto, and Ottawa are right behind the Eskimos with a projected total of 26. Calgary has the bye for week 4.
If you haven’t watched a CFL game yet, we highly recommend it. A pair of rule changes, 3 downs to gain 10 yards instead of 4, and a 20 second play clock, drastically change the way the game is played. Games are extremely uptempo, very little run game particularly on first down as you only have 2 downs to gain 10 yards, and possessions change quickly. Additionally, the rouge adds an exciting element to the kicking game.
Our DraftKings CFL Week 4 Picks
CFL enthusiasts will tell you we haven’t seen anything from Reilly yet… That he’s the Aaron Rodgers of the North-North… He’s thrown for over 375 yards in consecutive games, is averaging a hair under 30 PPG on the season, and we tend to agree that he could get better. He started extremely slow last week, and through an uncharacteristic red zone interception on a pass intended for Derel Walker. With the cheapest starting QB on the slate still $8,600, we are paying up at the QB spot this week with Reilly.
The safe RB play of the week is John White. He has a defined role, plus matchup, and we know we will get 3x value out of him week in and week out. That being said, I want to spend as little as possible at RB in CFL contests, and would swap Anthony Allen in here if we get news that Jeremiah Johnson is out again this week.
We expected to see Grigsby’s salary jump a bit this week, and were a bit disappointed it didn’t. The Ottawa offense has some brilliant folds built in to get their backs involved in the short passing game. Grigsby got way more work than we expected as the starter last week, so clearly they really like the veteran. Expect him to have 40% or higher ownership, so he may be a fade candidate, but you should be able to lock in 3x+ value for his $5,100 salary.
Rutley will get the start for Montreal this week and while he isn’t a flashy play, he end up being the best value at the position this week. He’s better known as a pass catching back, has been a starter in the CFL for stretches. This includes a start against Hamilton last season where he racked up 127 yards and a touchdown. He replaces last season’s league leading rusher, will play at home, off a bye week, and faces a Hamilton team that allows over 25 PPG through 3.
After his third consecutive 37+ point performance, I was asked if Williams could keep this up. Obviously matchups will determine that, and I think Toronto has a decent shot of slowing him down this week but I’m not betting on it. Williams isn’t doing this with deep balls, it’s all built into the Ottawa system. It’s the reason we liked Travon Van last week and Grigsby
There are so many reasons to like Derel Walker to have a big-time bounce back week here. First of all, he’s the most talented receiver in the CFL and, after a down week, he’s due. Second, he will be matched up with a rookie corner in C.J. Roberts, who will be making the first start of his CFL career. Third, you can expect a decent number of players to chase Bowman’s 3 TD game, creating low ownership % for Walker.
Collins is quickly emerging as veteran QB Darian Durant’s favorite target in Saskatchewan. We know Durant can sling it, so if the targets remain there week-to-week, Collins could emerge as one of the best receivers in the CFL. His $4,100 price tag is an absolute joke, again so mispriced that his ownership % could get out of control.
— Marshall Ferguson (@TSN_Marsh) July 8, 2016
Another receiver underpriced, but with reason. Underwood is Hamilton’s #1 WR, but hasn’t performed as one yet this season. A big part of that is the play of Masoli (looks like Collaros will be back next week) but they also faced BC in week 2 and last week it seemed Winnipeg was determined to eliminate Underwood and force Hamilton to win with Fanutz and Owens. We like the matchup with Montreal and expect a breakout game from Underwood.