Draft Him, Not Him
With the first daily fantasy game still a month away, it’s more traditional fantasy draft talk today. We are going to run down some draft this guy, not this guy scenarios that will help you either make a decision at some point in your draft this season.
Draft Calvin Johnson, not Marshawn Lynch
In our first two round mock draft analysis from last week we preached taking the surest thing possible in the first two rounds of the draft. There is nothing surer than Calvin Johnson. He will be the best wide receiver this season, and you will go into every game with an advantage at WR regardless of who you, or the Lions, are matched up against.
Marshawn Lynch on the other hand, is going to be playing against the NFC West, which means 6 games against St. Louis, Arizona and San Francisco. All of whom are going to finish the season as top 10 run defenses. He’s also going to be in more of a committee this season, and trust us, when you see Christine Michael you’ll understand why. Michael is already one of the ten most talented backs in the league, and he will take over for Lynch next season. Which means the team will start to work him in more and more as the season goes on, to make sure he’s ready to be a featured back next season. That’s way too much risk in round one for us, if you draft in the middle of the round grab Calvin and thank us later.
Draft Torrey Smith, not Vincent Jackson
I really, really like Torrey Smith this season in Baltimore. Gary Kubiak has a great offensive mind, and a knack for getting receivers open down field. Smith is faster than any receiver Kubiak ever had in
Houston, and Flacco remains one of the two or three best deep ball throwers in the league. While he probably won’t top 85 catches, I think he will be this year’s DeSean Jackson and still finish in the top 10 wide receivers. Watch for him to have a 80 catch, 1300 yard, 8-10 touchdown season this year.
Jackson, on the other hand, will be playing in a more conservative offense, with a backup quarterback running the show, and another deep threat to split downfield targets with. Jackson will get more looks in the red zone, and catch more passes over the middle, but may not catch a, let alone several, true deep touchdown passes all season. If he’s the best available wideout on the board I recommend adding rb depth or grabbing Gronk or Julius Thomas, then grabbing Torrey a round or two later.
Draft LeSean McCoy, not Adrian Peterson
I would take Adrian Peterson with the 2nd pick of the draft this season, and wouldn’t blame anyone for taking him number one. The only issues I have with AP is the fact that he has the Vikings strength of schedule vs the run is tough, and he’s going to be in a new system. While I like him in Norv Turner’s system, we just don’t know how well the new run blocking scheme is going to work yet.
While I really like Adrian Peterson at the number 2 or 3 spot this year, LeSean McCoy is my clear-cut number one player this fantasy season. We have discussed this in previous articles, but I will hammer home the points again: He plays in the most run heavy offense in the league and they have the easiest schedule vs the run in the league this season. He also happens to be arguably the most talented running back in the league, and a rare three down back that will also 60 passes for you this year. It’s a no brainer, if he stays healthy he will lead fantasy football in scoring this season.
Draft Kyle Rudolph, not Jason Witten
Let’s start by talking offensive coordinators. Scott Linehan is getting way too much credit for being a ‘passing guru’, he’s not one, he just calls a lot of pass plays. Most are predictable and unoriginial, and if we had to point the finger at one guy and say he screwed things up for Detroit in the Schwartz era it would probably be Linehan. Strong words, but put on the tape and watch his playcalling. Beyond that, he had talented tight ends in Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria that never got targets, so don’t tell me that all of the sudden Witten is going to see a ton more targets because he’s not, he will probably see less. In the red zone he will continue his streak from last year and be a non-factor, Linehan love isolating his talented wideouts (Dez and Terrance) and letting the either run a quick slant or a fade and trusting his qb to put the ball in the right spot.
We are not the guy in the room that is going to yell out after each Viking pick, ‘you know they got Norv Turner he’s going to help that guy a lot…’ But it is certainly worth briefly mentioning here. Norv was responsible for the offense that built Antonio Gates. Then he moved to Cleveland and created Jordan Cameron. Now he’s in Minnesota and they just paid a kid that scored nine touchdowns two seasons ago a ton of money to play tight end. Our guess is that he scores nine again this year, and we would put money on it if Vegas would take it.
Beyond Turner, if you just take a step back and look at the Viking offense, they don’t have a Red Zone threat outside of Peterson and Rudolph. The two guys could realistically combine to score 90% of the Vikings touchdowns from the Red Zone this season.
Draft Alfred Morris, not Doug Martin
We really like the player Doug Martin, he’s playing in a conservative offense with deep threats on the outside which should help open up the box a little. The problem is that the terrible offensive line that was blocking for him last season when through six weeks he was averaging 55 yards and 0.16 touchdowns per game may have gotten significantly worse this offseason. They don’t have a starting guard on either side, are plugging in a new left tackle, and lost pro bowlers Davin Joseph, Donald Penn and Carl Nicks.
While the Redskins offensive line is not the best in the game it is much more stable and does boast two really solid tackles in Trent Williams and Tyler Polumbus. New head coach Jay Gruden has preached all preseason that he is going to commit to using the same running scheme that was in place, but get bigger and more physical on the offensive line and stay with the running game all season.
The problem with Morris last season was not anything related to him, the offensive line, or scheme. It was strictly play calling, RGIII’s struggles, and the fact that they were always playing catch-up. If the Redskins commit to giving him the ball 16-20 times a game, Alf will finish inside the top 8 running backs, because he has proven that he will average 4+ yards per carry thanks to his unbelievable vision.