FanDuel NFL Week 11 Picks
Anytime you have two of the top offenses in the NFL facing the two worst defenses in the NFL, you can bet there will be a bunch of chalk picks. We fully expect Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, LeGarrette Blount, Martellus Bennett, and Julian Edelman to be fairly chalk this week, but I wouldn’t necessarily fade anyone in the group. Both offenses should have no problem getting to 30 points in matchups that should allow their entire core group of players to reach value.
In addition to cherry picking a handful of these chalk picks, we have several bargain plays and a pair of quarterbacks outside of Ben and Brady that are worth a look this week. Before we get into our FanDuel picks for week 11, here is a look at the top Vegas team totals, we really like the top four teams from this chart:
FanDuel NFL Week 11 QB Plays
FanDuel Salary – $8,100
Luck put up 28 FanDuel points in Tennessee just a month ago, and that was without Moncrief, Dorsett, and Allen. This matchup is at home, and the Titans are still one of the friendliest QB matchups in fantasy football allowing 26.52 PPG over their past four games. This is an absolute must-win game for the Colts, as they are currently 1 game back from the Titans in the AFC South standings.
FanDuel Salary – $7,900
Stafford is in MVP form, and you have to think he goes off in this matchup… He’s coming off games at Houston and at Minnesota with a banged up group of position players around him, and this week gets everyone back healthy, coming off the bye week, and facing the Jags 25th ranked scoring defense at home.
FanDuel NFL Week 11 RB Plays
FanDuel Salary – $9,100
Le’Veon Bell proved last week, once again, that he’s matchup proof right now. Ben just doesn’t have the weapons outside of Antonio Brown that he’s had in past years. As a result, Bell has averaged over 8 receptions on over 10 targets per game over his last three. This week he faces an atrocious Cleveland defense that has allowed over 171 rushing YPG and 1.75 rushing touchdowns per game over their past 4, and on the season has allowed the third most FanDuel PPG to opposing running backs.
FanDuel Salary – $8,500
I always catch flack for including the top 2 or 2 of the top 3 players in a position group. However, this is a week that I think it makes sense to bank 50 points out of your running backs and look for value where it’s available: WR and TE. Murray faces a Colts defense that he put up over 20 FanDuel points on just four weeks ago, and on the year gives up over 23 PPG to the position and the 31st highest DVOA to opposing RB’s in the passing game. The example lineup to the right is just proof that you can easily start 2 of the top 3 RB’s in this slate.
FanDuel Salary – $4,900
With his increased role in the Seahawks offense and Christine Michael’s release, Prosise is quickly going to shift towards a chalk pick this week. Rawls will obviously be eased into action, and I think it’s fair to expect Prosise to play an even larger role this week than he did last week where he nearly hit 4x against the Patriots.
FanDuel NFL Week 11 WR Plays
FanDuel Salary – $8,900
Our only hope for AB’s ownership % is the fact that he faces Joe Haden, and OBJ also has a prime matchup. Despite Haden, the Browns give up 35.5% DVOA to opposing #1 receivers, good for 30th in the NFL. What does that do for Brown’s projection? We have him at 11/132/1.2 for week 11, our second highest projected stat line for a receiver this season. Brown is a 2.5x value lock for his $8,900 salary this week, and a much better play than OBJ who has gone over 100 yards just two times this season.
FanDuel Salary – $6,100
Edelman is trending in the right direction at the right time. He scored his first touchdown of the season two weeks ago, and had his best statistical game of the year in his toughest matchup last week. This week he, and the rest of the Pats receiving group, benefit from no Gronk, which specifically means a bump in red zone targets. The 49ers give up 9/90/1 on average to opposing number one receivers this season.
FanDuel Salary – $4,800
We have been picking on the slot receiver matchup vs the Lions all season, with mixed results. This week is a perfect storm. The Jags absolutely know how to take advantage of Lee in mismatches. He has one of the better WR catch rates in the NFL, and faces Quandre Diggs, the Lions nickel corner, who has allowed the highest DVOA to slot receivers this season. The Lions haven’t faced many solid #3 receivers this season, but still give up 8/80 and nearly 1 TD/G to the position. Lee is the top bargain play on the board this week.
FanDuel NFL Week 11 TE Plays
FanDuel Salary – $5,400
Ebron looked good last week, but we are still waiting for that breakout performance. He is a complete matchup-nightmare and is able to get open on almost every route he runs. Despite being one of Detroit’s few downfield receiving targets, he has caught 75% of his targets this season. The matchup isn’t great on paper, Jacksonville is one of the better tight end defenses in the NFL, however, Ebron is 6’4″ and runs a 4.4 40. The Jags haven’t seen many tight ends like him this year.
FanDuel Salary – $5,200
If Gronk is out this week, and it looks like he will be, Bennett will likely see an ownership % north of 50. That being said, I don’t see anyway you can feed him. The Browns have allowed 16 PPG to opposing tight ends, and are in the bottom 5 in both YPG and touchdowns per game to the position.