DraftKings NFL Week 8 Picks
Before we jump into recapping week 7 and making our week 8 picks, let’s make sure everyone saw this announcement and has adjusted their week 8 lineups accordingly:
After cashing 5 straight weeks to start the season, week 7 made two straight hit-or-miss weeks for our picks. We were 50/50 at just about every position on DraftKings and were only slightly better on FanDuel last week. Let’s move on to week 8, starting with the Vegas totals for each team:
Week 8 DraftKings Picks
DraftKings Price – $7,000
We wrote last week that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are always worth a look when playing in the Georgia Dome. However, it was the running game that stole the show last week, and while Julio had his second straight game of over 29 points, Ryan finished under 300 yards and with only one touchdown.
This week they face a Green Bay team that features the leagues top run defense (both total yardage and YPC) and will also be without Tevin Coleman. Couple that with the fact that Green Bay’s passing game looked slightly better last week, and they can’t run the ball at all right now, and I think we see a ton of plays and points in this game.
DraftKings Price – $5,900
Derek Carr is an absolute lock this week, but may just fly under the radar… If you look at the DvP numbers, Tampa doesn’t look like a great matchup. However, you have to keep in mind the QB’s they have faced in their last four games: Colin Kaepernick, Derek Anderson, Paxton Lynch, and Case Keenum. They get very little pressure, and if you don’t get to Carr he will just pick you apart. Carr goes for his fifth 4x+ game of the season here.
DraftKings Price – $7,300
After facing three straight top 10 run defenses, Michael finally catches a favorable matchup in New Orleans this week. In his first game back, backup CJ Prosise had only three touches against the Cardinals, which leads us to believe Michael will get the bulk of the 35 DraftKings PPG the Saints are giving up to opposing running backs.
DraftKings Price – $6,800
Another great back in a great matchup, Ware continues to beat up on bad defenses. He averaged under 10 points against the Texans, Jets, and Steelers, but averaged over 28 points against the Chargers, Raiders, and Saints. The Colts definitely belong in that second group: they allow over 30 PPG to opposing running backs and over 4.7 YPC. Ware should have another big performance in week 8.
DraftKings Price – $3,700
Clearly Booker is the chalk pick of the week. There is just too much value here to even consider fading him. The Chargers are allowing the third most PPG to opposing backs over the past month. Booker will obviously see 20 carries this week, but his real value may come in the passing game. The Chargers lead the NFL in opponent RB targets, receptions and yards (8.5/10/65) over that stretch. No chance Booker doesn’t hit 4x+ value here.
DraftKings Price – $9,600
Julio is red hot, playing at home, favorable matchup, and has the highest ceiling among all receivers in this slate. It’s tough for a guy priced over $9,000 to reach 3x value… in fact even in a year like the one Antonio Brown had last season, he only went over 3x a handful of times. That is what makes the run Julio is on so impressive. He has gone over value in 3 of his last 4 games and even had a 5x performance in there. The Panthers secondary has been a disaster this season, they have allowed the second most ‘big’ passing plays in the NFL, are getting no pressure, and Jones went for 9/180/1 at home against the Panthers last season.
DraftKings Price – $7,800
The Browns are 30th in the NFL in DVOA vs opposing number one receivers, allowing 28% more production to the position. We have Marshall projected to score 21 points this week, but he certainly has multi-touchdown upside in this one. The Browns gave up 28 points to Jarvis Landry, 34 points to AJ Green, 32 points to Kendall Wright, and two touchdowns to Mike Wallace… This is a week you are going to want to have some shares of Marshall.
DraftKings Price – $6,900
Most experts are projecting a bounce-back performance from Russell Wilson in week 8… We know it won’t be with his legs, and if he does have a big game throwing the ball, there is no way Baldwin doesn’t hit 25 here. Jimmy Graham has seen his role in the Seahawks offense grow, but is still behind Baldwin in targets, receptions, red zone targets, and touchdowns.
DraftKings Price – $4,700
Both John Brown and JJ Nelson should be on your radar if Michael Floyd is out this week. Floyd is third on the Cardinals in targets at 43 and second in red zone targets at 7… a 25% share. Those have to go somewhere, and we are betting a good deal of them go to John Brown who had already started to see his usage jump now that he’s back and healthy.
DraftKings Price – $2,800
We love Fiedorowicz this week… The Lions continue to give up a ton of points to opposing tight ends, and C.J. has emerged as Osweiler’s go to security blanket over the past month. He’s seen his target rate jump to nearly 20% with a 70% success rate. The Lions are giving up 19 PPG to the position, and C.J. looks like a good bet to go over 4x value for the fourth time in his last five games.