Top Plays for DraftKings NFL Week 10 Contests
DraftKings has an awesome slate of week 10 contests, with three tournaments featuring top prizes of more than $100,000. Hopefully some of these plays come in handy if you lay down the cash to enter the $444 $5 Million main event. Before we get into our week 10 picks, as always here is a look at the top Vegas team totals for the week:
Quarterback Picks for Week 10
DraftKings Price – $7,600
If you look at the top of the QB position this week, there really isn’t a name/matchup combination between Rodgers at $7,600 and Palmer at $6,500 that jumps off the page. Our model projects Rodgers to score 25.3 points this week, and there are several reasons we think this projection holds up.
The main reason is the Titans secondary, they are allowing 18 DraftKings PPG to opposing quarterbacks despite playing a nine game schedule that included: Shaun Hill, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Tannehill, and Cody Kesseler. That number would be even higher, but, thanks to DeMarco Murray, they have been able to play ball control and hide their defense. The running game will not be effective against the Packers who have the NFL’s number one run defense.
One final note about the Titans current form: over their last four games they are giving up 325 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Rodgers comes into the game averaging over 290 yards with 11 touchdowns over his last four games.
DraftKings Price – $5,300
Jay Cutler is clearly the best value QB play on DraftKings this week. We have picked on the Bucs defense over their last three games, but they came into this stretch untested and overrated. Over the last three games, they are allowing over 330 passing YPG with 9 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Cutler has reached 2.5x value in his two starts this season, both of which came against an upper-tier pass defense in Houston and Minnesota. Our model has a projected floor of 18.4 points this week, that is 3.47x value.
Running Back Picks for Week 10
DraftKings Price – $8,400
It’s a fairly chalk pick anytime you have the top scoring non-QB fantasy player facing the league’s worst defense, a team he put up 36.5 on just one month ago. His value only gets boosted by the fact that this game is in Arizona, and his role in the passing game has ticked way up over the past three weeks. I think Johnson is a lock to hit 3x value this week, and certainly has 4x upside for his $8,400 salary. He is a much, much safer play that any of the receivers priced in the $7,500-$9,500 range.
DraftKings Price – $7,100
Booker is my favorite GPP play of the week. I think you will see 10-20%+ ownership for every RB over $7,000 other than Booker. When we gave Tavon Austin as a play in week 3 we wrote ‘if they Bucs hold a #1 receiver under value it will be the first time in 13+ games’. The same thing can be said here. This New Orleans defense has been consistently bad this season. Look at their recent game log: DuJuan Harris just put up 24.5, Christin Michael put up 11 points on just 10 touches, Spencer Ware put up 21, Jonathan Stewart put up 21, Melvin Gordon put up 25, Tevin Coleman put up 30, and the Raiders backs combined to score just under 50. If the Saints hold Booker under value it will be the first time they do so this season, we are betting it doesn’t happen.
Wide Receiver Picks for Week 10
DraftKings Price – $6,600
On paper the matchup with the Vikings looked terrible for Cutler and Jeffery. The Vikings were the NFL’s top defense, were getting all sorts of pressure on the QB, and Xavier Rhodes defends tall opposing #1 receivers as well as anyone in the league. However, Cutler turned in a serviceable 252/1/0 stat line, and Jeffery had his best game of the season. At this time in the year the past two season, Cutler was force-feeding Jeffery 15 targets per game. Given this matchup against the worst safety tandem and shortest corner tandem in the NFL, if we see a return to double digit targets, I think Jeffery has a breakout week 10 performance.
DraftKings Price – $
As, we explained in our FanDuel NFL week 10 picks, what Montgomery has done the past three weeks is what Tennessee struggles defending the most. They have the third worst DVOA against pass catching Running backs, and third worst overall against all short pass routes. Having caught 25 of 28 targets over the past month, this should be another 10+ reception game for Montgomery. He average 21 DraftKings PPG without scoring a touchdown in his previous two double-digit reception games.
DraftKings Price – $4,200
It’s hard wrapping your mind around the fact that JJ Nelson may be the go-to receiver in this offense. We know they are huge fans, but to see him officially named the number 2 receiver… this feels like a trap. That being said, with all four receivers active in the last game, Nelson led the unit in snaps and was on the field for 95% of the Cardinals offensive plays. If he’s out-snapping Fitzgerald, given the matchup, I don’t see how he doesn’t reach value this week.
DraftKings Price – $3,400
Patterson’s price on DraftKings is wack. He’s easily reached value in 3 of his last 4, and has an offensive coordinator that has come out and said his role is going to continue to grow. With the offensive line in shambles, the Vikings have struggled to give Bradford time to go deep, and have also struggled to run on early downs. Patterson helps in both of those departments with YAC on bubble screens. He runs with power, and has the speed to take any catch the distance. Nothing scary in this matchup with Washington who is allowing over 175 YPG to opposing receivers.
Tight End Picks for Week 10
DraftKings Price – $3,600
Zach Miller is easily the most underpriced tight end available in this slate, and happens to also have a plus matchup. The Bucs safeties are arguably the worst in the NFL, and are currently giving up nearly 15 YPC to opposing tight ends, and the secondary as a whole has allowed over 330 YPG over their past three. Miller has reached value in 4 of his last 6 games.